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Showing posts with label furniture. Show all posts
Showing posts with label furniture. Show all posts

Monday, January 25, 2010

Signs of Recovery in the Furniture Industry

Sarasota Herald-Tribune



Southwest Florida furniture retailers are experiencing a renaissance after the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Though the official turn in their fortunes has yet to show up in sales figures compiled by state government, furniture sellers are reporting a big jump during the last several months.

With its deep reliance on the retail trade and real estate, the upturn in sales is a good sign for the region. As with other big buys, furniture purchases tend to be a leading indicator of an economic downturn -- something people cut out first when they are feeling less wealthy or are nervous about their job prospects -- and then a trailing thermometer for a recovery.

Michael Bush, who owns the contemporary furniture store Home Resource in Sarasota's Rosemary District, said his December sales were the best in the company's 15-year history, representing a 135 percent increase when compared with last year's dismal results.

Other furniture retailers were more reluctant to reveal their specific performance, but all said business has been improving as their new numbers cycle over 2008 figures that were dismal.

"We are undoubtedly seeing an uptick and are definitely optimistic about the future," said Jeffrey Seaman, chief executive of the Tampa-based Rooms to Go furniture chain. "But Florida sales have fallen so far since the boom that current sales don't even approach what they were back then."

Still, in a market in which year-over-year sales have declined every month from April 2005 through October 2009, and have fallen more than 50 percent during that period, any positive news is a cause for celebration.

Other promising signs include growth at some furniture stores in spite of the recession.

Rooms to Go, which operates in nine states, is expanding its Cortez Road showroom in Bradenton from 13,000 to 25,000 square feet, and is spending more than $6 million to build a new 30,000-square-foot showroom on Tamiami Trail in Sarasota.

Bacon's Furniture recently opened a Room Solutions showroom on Tamiami Trail in Sarasota for bargain-seeking customers.

"Room Solutions is more of an economy store," said Bill Bacon, who runs his family's three-store chain from Port Charlotte. "It's like having Chevys in one store and Cadillacs in the other. You can't always mix them together. They have two different sets of customers."

Both retailers and analysts say the increased sales of foreclosed and short sale properties is the main reason behind the rising demand for furniture, and stores offering lower price points are tending to do better than higher-end chains.


"There's a lot more traffic. But shoppers are competitively comparing prices," said Ed Kalin, the owner of Kanes of Sarasota. "It's hard to make any money because margins are so thin."

Kalin has been loading up on furniture that he has been able to buy from manufacturers at a discount.

For example, he was recently got a good deal on barrel chairs that usually sell about $500. He bought a shipment, advertised them for $199 and sold them all within a month.

"People are looking for value," Kalin said. "Stores that can't diversify are having more trouble than stores that the ones that can change gears."

The increase at the lower end of the market does not necessarily mean that the upper end is suffering, though. Higher-end retailers say they are also benefitting from both increased home sales and a reinvigorated remodeling trend.

Bush, who sells Knoll, Herman Miller, Vitra and other iconic brands from his Rosemary District store, said he is seeing an increasing number of Canadian and Midwestern baby boomers tour his showroom.

"These are smart people," Bush said. "They know home prices in our area are still relatively depressed and are taking advantage of the market."

There are a lot of baby boomers and lot of foreigners, agreed Bacon of Bacon's furniture.

"I'm a firm believer that the uptick was caused by the weather up north and the fact that home prices here are so low," he said. "The summer was tough for everyone but we're starting to see things turn around."

Not every furniture retailer will be able to enjoy better days ahead.

Simon's Quality Used Furniture Store on Tamiami Trail has been vacated, and DeSears, which had a small furniture line, shut down after Thanksgiving.

Steven's Furniture in Venice, which opened for business in 1983, also appears to be in trouble. The company's answering machine at its Venice store refers customers to its Sarasota operation, and its Sarasota answering machine has stopped taking messages.

E-mails sent to both stores, asking whether they are still open for business, went unreturned.

Sarasota resident Alice Richey, who bought a living room set from Steven's Furniture in December, said she has been unable to get in touch with company employees and is now planning to file a small claims suit that will cost her just over $200.

After trips to the Sarasota Police Department and Sarasota County Sheriff's Office, she was told that was all she could do.

A 50 percent drop in sales is tough for any business to absorb, and that is what Southwest Florida furniture retailers have been through during the past five years.

In Sarasota County, sales of all furnishings, including school furniture, have dropped 54 percent to $151.4 million from $326.9 million over the same period, while in Manatee County, they have fallen 47 percent to $63.7 million from $119.5 million.

In Charlotte County, sales have dropped 55 percent to $44.7 million during the first 10 months of 2009 from $98.8 million during the first 10 months of 2005.

"The drop has been huge," said Seaman, the chief executive of Rooms to Go. "When you start comparing the latest numbers to last year, you're comparing to extremely easy numbers. But at least the market is stabilizing."

"Things are starting to turn," he said. "I'd call it the beginning of a new beginning."

Monday, June 29, 2009

Report: Home Construction & Furnishings
Story from the Wall Street Journal

Home builders suffered another year of painful losses in 2008, and the most successful analysts covering the sector were those able to grin and bear it—or at least be bearish on it.

The top analyst in the sector, Kenneth Leon of Standard & Poor’s Corp., a division of McGraw-Hill Cos., employed what he calls the “cockroach theory” in making several prescient calls about builders facing rising leverage and cash-flow issues.

“If there is one, there is likely to be more,’’ says Mr. Leon, 54 years old, in explaining his theory. He says when a few builders had liquidity issues early last year, it meant other builders with weak balance sheets would likely face similar problems. One builder that drew his attention was Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. He rated the stock a sell in early September, capturing a decline of more than 70% through November, when he moved it back to hold.

Mr. Leon also captured big declines with timely sell ratings on builder Meritage Homes Corp. and on Sealy Corp, the bedding maker that was hurt by the deepening recession.

He predicts that the home-building industry and Michigan furniture manufacturer will recover by this year's fourth quarter and that builders’ orders will begin to grow at that time. But he’s staying neutral on the industry because he says home prices will continue falling through 2010 as the supply of foreclosed homes for sale remains high.

“A sustainable recovery for the home builders requires a major reduction in housing inventory,’’ Mr. Leon says. His top picks are Pulte Homes Inc., Toll Brothers Inc. and MDC Holdings Inc., which he sees as well-capitalized builders.

No. 2 analyst Christopher Agnew, formerly of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, made some good calls on the real-estate-related niche of office-furniture makers by anticipating a big contraction in the financial-services sector and waning demand for new office space, hospital cabinets. Some of the furniture companies, which do a sizable amount of international sales, also were hurt by the declining value of the euro and the British pound, Mr. Agnew says.

Mr. Agnew, 38, had a sell rating on furniture supplier HNI Corp. through much of 2008, capturing declines that totaled more than 60%.

Mr. Agnew, who is now on the job hunt, says that based on historical trends, office-furniture makers will likely continue their move off their lows as the rate of year-over-year revenue declines starts to decelerate, even though the industry is unlikely to experience meaningful revenue growth until at least the end of 2010.

David Goldberg scored the No. 3 spot by navigating the volatility among home builders. For example, he put a sell on Meritage Homes in September, just before its stock fell 65% in about six weeks. Sensing the selling was too extreme, Mr. Goldberg switched to a buy rating in late October through early November and captured a bounce in the stock.

Mr. Goldberg, 31, an analyst in New York for UBS, part of Switzerland’s UBS AG, believes a recent rally in the home-building sector is premature. “We think the trough in the market is coming at end of the year,” he says.

His top picks are Ryland Group Inc. , which owns just enough finished house sites to feed demand, and Toll Brothers, which has ample cash reserves .