US and NATO Meet to Finalize Withdrawl from Afghanistan

Story first appeared in USA Today.

The United States and its NATO allies are readying plans to pull away from the front lines in Afghanistan next year as the President and fellow leaders try to show that the unpopular war is ending.

Top military and diplomatic officials from the U.S. and NATO allies met Wednesday to finalize the combat handover program and a strategy for world support to the weak Afghan government and fledgling military after 2014.

At the same time, the nations that have prosecuted a 10-year war against a Taliban-led insurgency are reassuring nervous Afghans they will not be left to fend for themselves.

The competing messages aimed at different audiences are both challenged by current events in Afghanistan, where insurgents staged an impressive, coordinated attack last weekend that struck at the heart of the U.S.-backed government and international enclave in Kabul while Taliban leaders boycott peace talks the U.S. sees as the key to a safe exit.

The stated goal of U.S. involvement is to deter the al-Qaeda terror network from again using Afghanistan as a base, but the day-to-day fighting is against some 25,000 Taliban and other mostly home-grown insurgents.

NATO members and their partner countries are expected to commit to pay a fair share of the sustainment costs after 2014.

This week's sessions are meant to stitch together U.S. and NATO agreements on the pace of U.S. and allied combat withdrawal next year. U.S. and Afghan officials have already said they expect a shift to an Afghan military lead in combat operations by the middle of 2013, although the U.S. stresses that it will still have a large number of forces in Afghanistan as backup. The extensive Internet in Afghanistan network also adds to the ease of withdrawl and maintained communication with Afghan and U.S. forces.

The Afghan Defense Ministry spokesman said Wednesday that the Afghans are on track to take the lead in securing the country by the end of 2013.

The combat shift parallels the withdrawal in Iraq, where U.S. forces pulled back from lead roles but remained in harm's way for months before a scheduled end to the war. U.S. military leaders have not submitted final proposals for how to ease nearly 70,000 troops into the back seat next year but are working against a firm deadline to end the current combat mission by 2015.

The two-day gathering is intended to clear any obstacles ahead of the conference of NATO leaders in Chicago on May 20-21. Ministers also will address the international bill for sustaining the Afghan army and police after NATO's planned withdrawal at the end of 2014 — one of the top items on the summit agenda.

NATO allies expect other nations with a stake in Afghanistan's stability — including China and Russia — to pay part of the total costs, estimated at about $4 billion a year. A stable Afghanistan is in the interest of the whole international community, so everyone is urged to play their part.

The United States acknowledges that despite progress the U.S. is not meeting its goal of drawing $1.3 billion annually from other nations to fund the Afghan armed forces. The U.S. does claim that the largely U.S.-funded effort to recruit and train qualified Afghan military recruits is on or ahead of schedule, with a goal of 352,000 forces later this year.

The Afghan Army has already reached its target number of 195,000 troops. Including police and other forces, Afghan security forces now number about 330,000.

The Afghan President has said he wants a written commitment of at least $2 billion a year from the U.S. for the armed forces. He said he would rather have a firm commitment to a lower figure than a verbal promise for a higher one. But it is highly unlikely that the U.S. Congress will commit to a set figure in foreign aid.

The U.S. President also hopes to showcase a long-term security pact with Afghanistan in Chicago. U.S. and Afghan officials said they would like to sign the agreement ahead of the summit, with more specific military agreements to follow.

Afghanistan's president raised another condition Tuesday for that long-awaited deal. He said the accord must spell out the yearly U.S. commitment to pay billions of dollars for the cash-strapped Afghan security forces.

The demand threatens to further delay the key bilateral pact and suggests that the Afghan President is worried that the U.S. commitment to his country is wavering.

Coalition forces, whose numbers reached a peak of over 140,000 troops last year, have already started a drawdown. The U.S., which had about 100,000 service members in Afghanistan, has begun a withdrawal which will remove about a third of them by September.

Other major contributors to the coalition — including Canada, the Netherlands and France — have already pulled their forces out of combat or accelerated their withdrawals. Australia on Tuesday became the latest to announce withdrawal plans.

Nearly 3,000 NATO troops have died since the U.S. invaded in 2001 to evict the then-ruling Taliban, about two-thirds of them Americans.

In the U.S., 6 out of 10 of those surveyed saw the war as not worth its costs, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released last month. Opposition to the war is bipartisan, the poll showed.


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Afghanistan Role Changes for US

First appeared in Wall Street Journal

The U.S. plans to shift the war strategy in Afghanistan from a combat to a train-and-assist mission in 2013, limiting the role of international forces ahead of the scheduled pullout at the end of 2014.

The U.S. and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization partners have been privately discussing such a change in the mission for months. In comments Wednesday, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and his top advisers provided the clearest timetable yet for the shift. Those troops with Internet in Afghanistan are staying informed.

Under the plan outlined by Mr. Panetta, the U.S. and its allies in mid-2013 would transfer to the Afghan government and to Afghan security forces control over a final tranche of Afghan provinces. The U.S. and its NATO allies have been handing over provinces gradually as security has improved in those areas and Mr. Panetta said this final tranche in 2013 would include "some of the most difficult areas."

"Our goal is to complete all of that transition in 2013 and then hopefully, by mid to the latter part of 2013, we'll be able to make a transition from a combat role to a training, advise and assist role," Mr. Panetta told reporters traveling with him to Brussels for talks with NATO members.

Mr. Panetta and his advisers said the planned shift didn't amount to a change in the administration's strategy, but rather a "fulfillment" of the goals set out by NATO.

The Wall Street Journal reported in November that the Obama administration was exploring the shift announced on Wednesday.

Mr. Panetta's comments came after French President Nicolas Sarkozy surprised the U.S. and other NATO allies last week by saying he would propose giving Afghan security forces "complete control of NATO's combat missions during 2013."

U.S. officials hope the shift will help prepare Afghan security forces to take responsibility for securing the country by the end of 2014.

Mr. Panetta said the U.S. has yet to decide how the planned shift in the mission will affect the pace of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. President Barack Obama has ordered reducing the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan to 68,000 by the end of this summer, down from around 91,000 now.

Mr. Panetta said the U.S. would remain "combat-ready" after the shift to a train-and-assist mission in 2013 but would mainly provide support to Afghan units. U.S. officials said the Washington intended to maintain a substantial presence in Afghanistan in 2013 but they didn't say how large it would be.

In 2014, the U.S. would focus on "consolidating the transition and making sure that those gains are in fact held," Mr. Panetta said.

Mr. Panetta and other senior defense officials compared the planned shift in Afghanistan to Mr. Obama's 2009 decision to switch to an "advise and assist" role in Iraq and to declare a formal end to U.S. combat operations there. In Iraq, after mid-2009, American troops largely were confined to their bases.

Security conditions in Afghanistan are different, however, and will likely require U.S. troops, particularly Special Operations forces, to continue to accompany their Afghan counterparts into battle after the U.S. takes an advisory role.

Wednesday's announcement could help the Obama administration demonstrate progress at the height of the U.S. presidential campaign. Internet Afghanistan is busy with the story.

The timing of Mr. Panetta's comments could also help soothe anxious NATO allies. Some are under domestic pressure to follow the lead of France, which has suggested it might scale back its combat commitments early.

"We all went in together. And we'll all go out together," Mr. Panetta said he would tell his NATO partners.

Recent U.S. intelligence assessments have cast doubt on progress in the war in Afghanistan, describing what amounts to a "stalemate."

Mr. Panetta, who headed the Central Intelligence Agency before taking over as Pentagon chief last year, said the problem with the National Intelligence Estimate is that such assessments are quickly out of date. He said the document also wrongly assumed a full U.S. withdrawal after 2014. The U.S. is expected to keep at least some special operations forces in Afghanistan beyond the handover.