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Friday, October 23, 2009

Microsoft's Performance Beats Expectations, But Still Falls

from Wall Street Journal

 Microsoft Corp. added to the view that recovery is taking hold across the technology sector, beating expectations for its fiscal first-quarter earnings even as profit declined 18% from last year.



Shares of the world's largest software maker jumped 11% to $29.42 as consumer demand for Windows and the company's Xbox videogame systems offered a reason for optimism, one quarter after Microsoft's first full year of declining sales as a public company.

"We are very pleased with our performance this quarter and particularly by the strong consumer demand for Windows," Microsoft Chief Financial Officer Chris Liddell said.

The slump in global PC sales and broad economic weakness has battered Microsoft's results over the last year, compounding already weakened demand for Windows Vista. But on Thursday, the company moved to recharge revenue growth with the launch of its next-generation operating system, Windows 7.

After suffering revenue drops across all five of its businesses last quarter, Microsoft saw growth in its server and tools division, while its entertainment unit remained roughly flat with last year.

Revenue for its Windows unit, Microsoft's largest division, was still down 39% from last year, and earnings for the division fell 52%. But the introduction of Windows 7 is already beginning to show signs of strength. Deferred revenue for pre-sales of the new software totalled $1.47 billion.

For the quarter ended Sept. 30, Microsoft reported earnings of $3.57 billion, or 40 cents a share, down from $4.37 billion, or 48 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue declined 14% to $12.92 billion.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected earnings of 32 cents on revenue of $12.37 billion.

The company's server and tools was the only one to post revenue growth, albeit 0.5% growth, while sales at the business division fell 11%.

In online services, a small but important division, revenue decreased 5.8%.

In addition to its updated Windows software, Microsoft is also looking to broaden its relevance beyond the desktop personal computer into newer types of devices like the light-weight netbook and a new line of smartphones.

Meanwhile, Microsoft reduced its full-year operating expense guidance by $400 million to between $26.2 billion and $26.5 billion.

"We also maintained our cost discipline, which allowed us to drive strong earnings performance despite continued tough overall economic conditions," Mr. Liddell said.

Retailers Expecting Early Christmas Shopping But Low Figures Overall

Reuters


According to a new Accenture survey, 69 percent of shoppers plan to do the bulk of their holiday shopping by Dec. 7.  That’s up from 60 percent a year earlier.

More than half (52 percent), plan to shop on Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving), up from 42 percent last year.

The game of chicken between retailers and shoppers over discounts may be more intense this year after retailers had to practically give the store away in 2008 to clear inventory in the middle of the recession.

The vast majority of consumers (86 percent) will not be moved to buy without a discount of at least 20 percent, and a quarter of shoppers will be looking for an aggressive 50 percent discount before they open their wallets, the survey said.

“We have seen a ’shift to thrift’ across all income levels during this economic downturn and breaking that habit will be the greatest challenge for retailers this holiday season,” Janet Hoffman, managing director of Accenture’s Retail practice, said in a news release.

Gift cards may also come back, with 79 percent of people saying they will give them and 59 percent saying they really want them. Many people would rather receive the equivalent of cash this year and shop for their own needs, including tree storage bags.


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From Investor's Business Daily

Retailers won't uncork much champagne this holiday season, as worries over jobs and the economy likely will take a lot of the cheer out of gift buying.

But at least things won't be as gloomy as they were a year ago, when leading U.S. retailers suffered their worst Christmas since at least 1970.

Business has already picked up heading into the holiday season. Last month, same-store sales at leading U.S. retail chains rose 1.1% vs. the prior year, says Ken Perkins president of Retail Metrics. It was the first monthly gain since August 2008.

It also looks like leading retailers' earnings will grow this quarter after nine straight quarters of declines, Perkins says. He estimates that chains are set to see Q3 earnings grow 23.6% vs. 2008. Last year, Q4 earnings sank 26.6%.

Meanwhile, analysts expect retailers' Q4 same-store sales to rise 0.7%, says Jharonne Martis, director of consumer research at Thomson Reuters.

Flat Christmas

But holiday shoppers aren't likely to give stores much of a boost.

Overall Christmas sales should slip 1% to $437.6 billion, says Rosalind Wells, chief economist at the National Retail Federation. That's far better than 2008's 3.4% drop, but nothing to write home about.

It would be the first back-to-back decline in holiday sales since 1992, when the NRF started tracking such figures.

"The Grinch won't have a starring role this Christmas, but he will be lurking in the background," Perkins said. "There are still significant head winds to consumer spending this year."

Those head winds include rising unemployment, which recently hit a 26-year high of 9.8%. Other worries include stagnant home values and burdensome credit card debt.


On the bright side, retailers face easy comparisons with last year's grim results.

"I would anticipate an improving, though still challenging, season," said Michael Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers.

He figures Christmas same-store sales will rise 1% from a year ago. That's not much of an increase, but it's at least better than last year's woeful 5.8% decline — and better than what retailers saw for much of 2009.

"As with most recoveries, the retail recovery has been very uneven and very sporadic," Niemira said. "We're starting to see numbers on the positive side."

He also expects the consumer mood to improve as the holiday season approaches.

Q3 GDP data out next week will confirm that the recession is over, which should have a favorable impact on consumer confidence.

Also on the plus side, the stock market rally has helped some consumers increase their net worth.

Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at the NPD Group, expects consumers to come out of hiding over the holiday as they give in to pent-up demand.

"The consumer, who hasn't shopped all year, is starting to show signs of life," he said.

Lean Budgets, Inventory

But overall, shoppers will keep budgets tight this Christmas. Consumers plan to spend an average of $682.74 on holiday gifts this year, according to an NRF survey conducted by BIGresearch. That's down 3.2% from last year.

Retailers are keeping inventories tight as well. Doing so makes it less likely they'll have to slash prices to clear out unsold goods — a move that devastated the industry last Christmas.

This year chains will need to offer discounts of 35% to 40% to drive traffic, Perkins says. That's far less than the 70% off deals they offered last Christmas.

Wal-Mart has continued its aggressive holiday pricing this year. On Sept. 30, the world's biggest retailer started selling more than 100 popular toys, such as Barbie Cut and Style Rapunzel doll, at $10.

The next day, rival Target began offering discounts of up to 50% on popular toys such as Barbie Fashion doll, which goes for $5.

Wal-Mart, Target and Amazon have begun a high-profile online book price war, offering a few key titles for pre-order at about $9.

Wal-Mart on Wednesday began offering weekly deep savings events and new everyday prices on thousands of items through the holidays.

Holiday consumers likely will continue their quest for bargains at value retailers. In the NRF survey, more than half of shoppers said sales and price discounts or everyday low prices would be the most important factor when deciding where to shop at Christmas.

"We're still seeing shoppers very deal focused," said Frank Badillo, senior economist at Retail Forward. "They continue to trade down in terms of brands and the store types."

Dollar stores and discounters will rule the holiday, as they have all year.



The vast majority of consumers (86 percent) will not be moved to buy without a discount of at least 20 percent, and a quarter of shoppers will be looking for an aggressive 50 percent discount before they open their wallets

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters estimate the big winners will include off-price clothier Ross  with a projected 5.6% same-store sales gain during Q4; and off-price retailer TJX, with a 5.4% rise.

They expect Dollar Tree's Q4 comps to rise 4.7%, and Family Dollar's to climb 4.2%.


Even department stores might rebound from recent depressed levels. High-end chains, such as Saks and Nordstrom could show modest improvement, Perkins says.

Also, while unemployment continues to move higher, weekly jobless claims have come down sharply from their peak earlier in the year.

"That foreshadows improvement down the road, though it may be another six months before we start to see job growth and the rate starting to fall off," Badillo said.

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From the Business Insider
Research Firms Predict Sad Christmas

Most of the major predictions are now in for the holiday shopping season. Here we’ve put together a roundup of what various trade associations and research outlets are predicting. Projections range a bit this year. Some groups are calling for a slight decline, other say sales will be flat and some say sales will show a slight uptick.

In part, the differences stem from the different way the groups look at the numbers. ICSC and Retail Forward, for example, looks at same-store sales while the National Retail Federation looks at total sales. For its part, Deloitte is working off Commerce Department data. NPD bases its projection on surveys it completes. And ShopperTrak’s metrics are based off its proprietary foot traffic counts. Collectively, the data gives a fairly well-rounded picture of what the experts are expecting to see for the critical season.

The bottom line is that all the groups expect the season to be stronger than 2008’s disastrous holiday shopping season, but the recovery will be modest.

ICSC

The association has not yet put up its Holiday Watch page for 2009. But it has released its forecast.

The ICSC expects same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, for the “traditional” holiday shopping season of November and December to rise 1 percent. Same-store sales for the “new” holiday season of November though January are expected to rise 1.5 percent, it said.

A year ago, the ICSC said same-store sales in November and December fell 5.8 percent, while they dropped 5.4 percent for the November though January time frame.

National Retail Federation

The NRF looks at total sales rather than same-store sales. The association’s Holiday Headquarters is up and running. The association predicts retail industry sales to decline 1 percent this year to $437.6 billion. Last year, its numbers indicated sales fell 3.4 percent.

The National Retail Federation today released its 2009 holiday forecast, projecting holiday retail industry sales to decline one percent this year to $437.6 billion.* While this number falls significantly below the ten-year average of 3.39 percent holiday season growth, the decline is not expected to be as dramatic as last year’s 3.4 percent drop in holiday retail sales nor as severe as the 3.0 percent decline in annual retail industry sales expected for all of 2009.

Deloitte

Deloitte’s predictions are that holiday sales will be flat.

Deloitte’s Retail group expects total holiday sales to reach $810 billion, which would represent a zero percent change in November – January holiday sales, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, over last year. This would be an improvement over last season’s 2.4 percent decrease, the first decline in holiday sales according to Deloitte’s analysis of Commerce Department data dating back to 1967.

Retail Forward

Like ICSC, Retail Forward looks at same-store sales. The research group is forecasting flat growth—compared with a 4.5 percent decline a year ago—for the holiday fourth quarter in the key holiday retail segments combined.

In looking at some of the highlights, the group says:

    * Sales at apparel and accessories channels are forecast to decline about 2% during the fourth quarter holiday period compared with a more than 9% drop last year. Most of the continued decline will be at department stores which continue to feel the brunt of a combination of economic, competitive and demographic trends.

    * The broad group of mass retailers that includes discount department stores, supercenters, warehouse clubs and small-format value stores is forecast to grow sales 2.5% this holiday season. This is an increase from 2.0% a year ago.

    * The homegoods channel, featuring home products like Christmas tree bags, will see sales decline more than 2% compared with a 7.4% decline last year. Consumer electronics stores will experience the biggest decline in part due to Circuit City’s exit. Building and home improvement retailers will see sales declines ease to -2.0%. This channel is expected to be the first to benefit from improvements in the housing market and is forecast to see slight sales gains emerge in early 2010.

ShopperTrak

Shopper Trak, which specializes in traffic counting software, is the most recent group to offer a prediction.

The group predicted:

[T]otal holiday sales will rise 1.6 percent compared with a year ago, which would be good news for retailers compared with last year’s steep decline.

The research firm also expects a 4.2 percent decline in foot traffic from last year’s holidays.

Last year, holiday sales fell 5.9 percent while foot traffic dropped 15.4 percent, according to ShopperTrak estimates. The research firm tracks customer traffic at more than 45,000 stores.

The NPD Group

The NPD Group published its outlook a week ago. Its survey of neither 2,000 shoppers showed that 30 percent planned to spend less than last year–a four percentage point increase from the number that gave that response a year ago. A chart at the site also lists the top 10 categories consumers plan to target for gifts and how the responses compare with 2008.

“That 4 percent increase is certainly a sign of the times. On the other hand, that 4 percent is not as dramatic as it could have been.” said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst, The NPD Group, Inc. “I think consumers will be looking for the right gift, rather than the most extravagant or expensive one. That combined with the soft numbers we are up against from holiday last year, and I think we will see growth, albeit a modest 0.5 to 1.5 percent.”

It is the 0.5 to 1.5 percent growth that takes us ‘back to the future’ and to holidays past when growth rates of 5 percent or more were unheard of and unexpected. For Holiday 2009, not only will actual spending levels go ‘back to the future’ but the kinds of gifts being bought will ‘go back’ to more traditional holiday gift items.

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And, From Market Watch, a look at Wal Mart's upcoming holiday season

In a move that could spark a retail price war and weigh on the sector's earnings, Wal-Mart on Wednesday announced a wide range of price cuts on items in its stores ranging from low-end meat to children's toys.

Wal-Mart said that "weekly deep savings events and new everyday low prices" will start today and run through the holiday period, eventually adding up to hundreds of millions of dollars of savings. Items include
"Many of these prices represent the lowest we've offered in years, because we know these are tough times for American families," said Eduardo Castro-Wright, vice chairman of Wal-Mart Stores, in announcing the reductions. "We made a purposeful decision to focus initially on everyday staples as well as items that often require larger spending commitments in preparation for Thanksgiving and Christmas."

Among the items on offer will be rolls of 73% lean ground beef at $1.25 a pound, a cut of 26% and bananas at 39 cents a pound, down 27%. Also trimmed are vitamins, board games, and Hot Wheels, with cuts ranging from 17% to 60%.

And this season, Wal-Mart is selling 100 toys for $10 or less. At the same time, the company is in the process of expanding its store-brand line of foods and everyday household items. In the future, this project is expected to push lower-tier products off Wal-Mart's shelves.

The economic slowdown and sky-high unemployment has hit the American consumer hard, weighing heavily on retail sales and bringing worries that this holiday shopping season could be one of the worst in years.

And John Fleming, chief merchandising officer, told Bloomberg News that the company expects a "tough" holiday shopping season with consumers delaying purchases.

Investors did not take the news well. Shares of Wal-Mart, which traded up most of the day, went south shortly after the announcement.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Business Schools Remain Surprisingly Resilient

From the Economist



The market for MBAs is defying the economic gloom

BUSINESS schools have been widely accused of fashioning the wrecking balls and training many of the demolition crews that have wreaked such havoc in the economy over the past two years. And the crisis, whether it was forged in business schools or not, is undoubtedly making it harder for students to afford their fees, or to get jobs when they graduate: in America only half the class of 2009 had been offered a job three months before graduating. Yet business schools are thriving. More than two-thirds of full-time MBA programmes received more applications this year than last, their best performance for five years, according to the Graduate Management Admission Council, a business-school association.

Deciding whether to go to business school or not is difficult. The long-term benefits sound substantial: an improved chance of getting a corner office and a six-figure salary. But the short-term costs are also weighty: two years at a leading American business school can cost $100,000 even before you take living expenses and forgone income into account. Many of the world’s most famous business people, from Bill Gates down, did not bother with an MBA, whereas some of the most illustrious products of business schools have covered themselves with ignominy of late. Consultancies, which were forced to recruit more people without MBAs in the late 1990s because of competition from high-tech companies, found that they performed no worse and sometimes better.

Still, on balance, the benefits probably outweigh the costs, particularly in straitened times. People with MBAs are more likely to get jobs than people without them, and earn higher salaries. Employers pay MBAs on average twice as much as people with only undergraduate degrees and 30-35% more than people with lower-level management degrees, such as Master of Finance. Some 98% of corporate employers report that they are satisfied with the MBAs they hire, a sign that they will continue to fish from the same pond.

Deciding which school to go to can be as difficult as deciding whether to go in the first place. They all seem to offer roughly the same thing, if the advertisements that appear in publications such as this one are to be believed: a chance to hone your skills as a “global leader” and “strategic thinker” while gazing at beautiful buildings. Happily, prospective students now have a plethora of “Which MBA?” guides to help them choose, from The Economist and such rivals as the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, US News & World Report and BusinessWeek, which started the trend in 1988. Less happily, perhaps, the guides yield some strikingly different rankings.

The Economist’s guide, published this week, ranks two European outfits, Spain’s IESE Business School and Switzerland’s International Institute for Management Development (IMD), at numbers one and two respectively. The University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School only just makes it into the top ten at number nine (up from number 17 a year ago). The Financial Times (the parent company of which owns part of The Economist) puts Wharton and London Business School at the top of its list, and IESE at number 12. BusinessWeek, which ranks American and non-American schools separately, awards the top American spot to the University of Chicago’s Booth School and international gold to the School of Business at Queen’s University in Canada. The China Europe International Business School is ranked eighth in the FT’s list but only 95th in The Economist’s.

These differences reflect different methodologies. The Economist’s rankings rely heavily on students’ own assessment of their time at business school in general, and of whether their earning power rose and their “networks” expanded in particular. One reason why IESE did so well is that 98% of graduates found jobs within three months of graduation with an average basic salary of $125,000—a remarkable feat in the current economic climate. The FT’s list emphasises academic research as well as salaries. But the clash of rankings also has a bright side: it underlines the fact that there are different ways in which business schools can excel.

One of the most striking developments is that, contrary to the impression given by their advertisements, business schools are offering ever more diverse courses, giving prospective students a better chance of finding one that matches their aptitudes and interests. It normally takes two years to earn an MBA at an American school. At many European schools, including IMD and Insead, it only takes a year.

The Sloan School of Management is renowned for no-nonsense quantitative methods. Half of Insead’s alumni go on to start a business or purchase one. Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, with its spectacular location overlooking Clear Water Bay, has the best facilities in the world, according to many. The Indian Institute of Management is arguably the world’s most exclusive school, with more than 600 applicants for every place. HEC Paris has 63 overseas alumni associations in 49 countries. At Southern Methodist University’s Cox School some 250 executives act as mentors to the students. At Britain’s Henley Business School the average age of students is an experienced 37, compared with an upstart 29 at the Ross School at the University of Michigan.

Online MBAs, which not only reduce costs but also allow students to continue working, are proliferating. Warwick University’s “distance learning” MBA is a snip at £5,200 ($9,630) a year. There is also a boom in specialised qualifications. London Business School has introduced a master’s in finance. Nottingham Business School offers six different degree courses, including one in corporate social responsibility. Bordeaux Business School offers an Executive Wine MBA.

The growing diversity of the business-school market is surely welcome. There is also lots to be said in favour of multiple rankings, the better to illuminate potential students’ options. After all, different rankings, like different schools, suit different tastes and purposes.

Going To College And Going Broke

From Business Week


Cash-strapped families were dealt another blow this fall as tuition at public and private colleges for the 2009-10 academic year continued to outpace inflation, the College Board said in a report released on Oct. 20.

This year's College Board report shows average increases of 6.5% for public in-state tuition and 4.4% for private colleges. The consumer price index declined 2.1% between July 2008 and 2009, meaning that inflation-adjusted increases in prices this year are significantly larger than current dollar increases, the College Board says. At the same time, family net income has barely budged over the past decade, says Sandy Baum, a senior policy analyst with the College Board.

"The struggle of families to pay for college is largely attributed to rising prices, but also to the fact that incomes are simply stagnating," Baum says. "Families are facing these prices with incomes that are not making any progress at all,"

The spiraling cost of higher education comes at a time when institutions are reeling from the aftershocks of shrinking state aid, battered endowments, and significant budgetary pressures. Schools managed to temper some of these increases by doling out more institutional aid and grants to students, a move that made the sticker price less painful for the 18.5 million students projected to attend college this year. Last year, about two-thirds of full-time undergraduates received grants, with students receiving on average $5,041 in grant aid, up from $4,656 the year before, the report says.
Tuition hikes: the main budget option

That aid barely softened the blow for some students, especially those attending public schools, where for the second consecutive year tuition and fees rose faster than those of private schools. In such states as California, Washington, Florida, and New York, public schools raised tuition by more than 15%, he says. Other states, like Maryland, were able to keep tuition at steady levels.

"Once you get past budget cuts such as program reduction, layoffs and furloughs—the order of the day at just about every institution—you're really only left with tuition, " says Terry Hartle, a senior vice-president of the American Council on Education. "That is acting as a fiscal balance wheel at many institutions, making up the difference between lost revenue from other sources and the funding they can't come up with."

The average annual in-state tuition and fees at four-year public colleges for the 2009-10 academic year is $7,020, up $229 from last year. Those numbers don't include room and board, which adds another $8,193.

"This is certainly higher than most of us like to see, but is lower than we might have feared, given the current state of the economy and what we experienced in past recessions," Baum says, noting that in past recessions the average price increase for public colleges was sometimes in double digits.
accelerating prices at public schools

This year's 6.5% tuition increase for public colleges is almost identical to last year's increase (6.4%), but it's particularly worrisome because of the long-term trend, Baum says. From 1979 to 1989, the price of attending a public four-year institution went up in inflation-adjusted dollars at an annual rate of 3%, increasing to 4% from 1990 to 2000—and, for the most recent decade, nearing 5%.

"At public four-year colleges, we've seen a rapid rate of increase in prices and that trend has been exacerbated in recent years," Baum says.

That's the exact opposite of what has been happening over the long-term at private colleges, which have seen dips in the rate of increase of published prices. For example, the annual inflation-adjusted cost of attending a private school in the last decade has gone up just 2.6% a year, a decline from the 1980s, when the average price increase stood at 4.7%, the report says.

This year, however, costs at private universities continued to rise, with published tuition and fees for 2009-10 averaging $26,273, a $1,096 increase over last year. When $9,363 in room and board costs are tacked on, the annual sticker price totals $35,636.

Private schools have been especially intent on keeping the price of college affordable for students this year, says Baum. Many top-ranked schools have introduced programs in the past two years that make college more affordable for families earning in the low six figures, And this has led other institutions to offer comparable packages to middle-class families.
Private schools boosted student aid

"Private institutions are concerned under the current economic climate, where many students and families are price-sensitive," Baum says. "I do think that over time there has been an accumulating awareness at these schools that they have to do something to decrease the rate of growth."

Tony Pals, a spokesman for the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities, which represents more than 1,000 institutions, says the nation's colleges and universities have indeed become more affordable. Despite falling endowment values and a decline in fundraising, schools sought to make the price of college more affordable for students by cutting staff salaries and benefits, delaying construction and renovation projects, and cutting back on travel. By doing this, they were able to increase institutional student aid for students by 9% and maintain enrollment levels this fall, he said.

"What happened was that institutions had to cut deeply into certain areas of their budgets and transfer those savings over to institutional aid," Pals says. "The overall impact was to keep higher education affordable to students from all backgrounds."

Institutional grant aid and merit-based scholarships played an important role this year in determining what most students pay for college—a figure called the "net price" that is often sharply different from the published tuition prices listed by schools. The net price is what the average student pays after grants, student aid ,and tax benefits are factored into his or her college bill.

At four-year public colleges and universities, students on average receive about $5,400 in aid, bringing the average tuition cost to around $1,600 a year. At private universities, aid totals around $14,400, bringing the average annual tuition to about $11,900.

Public four-year colleges sought to increase the amount of student grants this year, distributing about two-thirds of grant dollars without regard to financial need, according to the College Board report.
Losing "well-qualified" students?

Lauren Asher, president of the nonprofit Institute for College Access and Success, which runs the Project on Student Debt, says she finds this trend worrying,

"Economic constraints can lead well-qualified students to lower their academic aspirations or give up on college altogether without adequate aid," Asher says in a statement. "It is particularly disturbing that public colleges are using such a large share of their financial aid resources for so-called 'merit aid' in these tough times."

While many students were able to pay for college with the help of grants from schools, a majority still depend on student loans to cover the remainder of the tuition bill. Total education borrowing increased 5% from the 2007-08 academic year to 2008-09, the latest year for which figures are available. Federal student loan borrowing increased by $15 billion while non-federal borrowing, or private loans, declined by $11 billion, a 50% decline from 2007-08.

Private lending decreased sharply because of the turmoil in the financial markets, ,which caused many private lenders to close up shop or impose stricter credit requirements. As a result, more students than ever are turning to unsubsidized federal Stafford loans, which in 2007-08 totaled $38 billion, up from $29 billion the year before. Education advocates say they see this as a positive development for students because of the lowest interest rates and more favorable repayment options that come with federal loans.

"The private loan capital for higher education may well be drying up," says Hartle. "This is intriguing because it seems like a fundamental shift."

Too Big To Fail: Andrew Ross Sorkin

From Here is the City


Andrew Ross Sorkin's new book, 'Too Big To Fail', is the first real account that clearly reveals the sheer panic Wall Street was experiencing after the fall of Lehman Brothers in September last year.

Excerpts from the book are being run in Vanity Fair, and the reader is presented with a picture of pandemonium, as Wall Street CEOs, senior US government officials and regulators run around like headless chickens attempting to save Wall Street and the financial system as a whole.

And Tim Geithner (then President of the New York Fed, and now Treasury Secretary) appears to have spent much of his time aimlessly calling up firm CEOs and suggesting endless merger options, as he clearly thought that the future of the industry could only be secured if 'too big to fail' firms joined forces to become even bigger.

According to Sorkin's sources, one morning soon after Lehman went belly-up, Geithner started to write down a series of possible industry mergers, which he believed might save the system from financial armageddon - Morgan Stanley and Citi, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Mitsubishi, Morgan Stanley and CIC, Morgan Stanley and an outside investor, Goldman and Citi, Goldman and Wachovia, Goldman and an outside investor, Fortress Goldman and Fortress Morgan Stanley.

And here's a note of some of the classic telephone exchanges which are said to have occurred between the main players:

Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein calls Citi boss Vikram Pandit:

Blankfein (who Geithner had apparently asked to make the call): 'Well, I guess you know why I'm calling'.

Pandit: 'No, I don't'.

Blankfein: 'Well, I'm calling you because at least some people in the world might be thinking that combining our firms would be a good idea'.

Pandit: 'I want you to know I'm flattered by the call'.

Blankfein: 'Well Vikram, I'm not calling with any flattery in mind!'.

Geithner calls JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon about taking over Morgan Stanley

Dimon: 'You've got to be kidding me. I did Bear. I can't do this'.

Geithner: 'You'll be getting a call from John Mack'. He hangs up.

Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack, Geithner, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke and US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson on a conference call

Geithner (to Mack): 'We've spent a lot of time working on this, and we think you need to call Jamie'.

Mack: 'Tim, I called Jamie. He doesn't want this bank'.

Geithner: 'No, he'll buy it'.

Mack: 'Yeah, for one dollar! That makes no sense'.

Geithner: 'We want you to do this'.

After some more tooing and froing, Mack: 'Well look, I have the utmost respect for the three of you and what you are doing.....But I won't do it. I just won't do it. I won't do it to the 45,000 people that work here'.

And as the crisis reached its climax, Mack was busy on the phone putting the finishing touches on a deal that would result in a $9bn cash injection into Morgan Stanley from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial. Geithner called, and was told he couldn't be put through to Mack. Paulson called and was told the same thing. Geithner then called a second time, insisting that he be connected to Mack immediately. Mack, who is said to have been minutes away from reaching agreement with the Japanese bank, finally snapped:

'Tell him to get F...ed. I'm trying to save my firm'.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Real Estate Portfolio Has GE Investors Fretting

Reuters


General Electric Co's $84 billion real estate portfolio remains a worry for investors, who wonder if the conglomerate will have to take big write-downs to reflect the lower value of real estate debt and equity holdings.

The GE Real Estate unit was the only GE Capital business to post a loss in the latest quarter.

"People are worried about commercial real estate," said Russell Croft, vice president and portfolio manager of Croft-Leominster, which owns 263,000 GE shares.

"I want to hear what they're doing to shrink GE Capital and get more detail on the real estate (holdings)," Croft said. The company has a strong industrial business but "cleaning up GE Capital" was key to extending GE's recent share rally.

Shares of GE, the biggest U.S. conglomerate, fell 5 percent Friday as its quarterly sales disappointed Wall Street even as its profit topped expectations.

GE Real Estate, part of the GE Capital division, posted a loss of $538 million in the quarter, double the loss in the preceding quarter. By comparison, GE Real Estate earned $244 million in last year's third quarter.

NEXT BIG THREAT

The commercial real estate sector has been on the decline for more than a year and represents the next great threat to the financial markets, according to recent government reports.

About $1.4 trillion of commercial real estate debt is expected to mature from 2009 through 2013, with 41 percent of that coming due over the next three years. Much of the maturing debt carries a large balloon payment at the end.

Meanwhile, borrowers are facing lenders who have shut their doors to making any more investments in commercial real estate, and are particularly shying away from large loans. On top of that, properties values have sunk and in many cases aren't worth the debt they carry.

The financing available to roll over a lot of commercial debt coming due in the next few years is limited. Much of GE's commercial real estate equity is not worth what the company paid for it, especially assets bought near the market peak in 2006 and 2007.

"They're still not taking impairments on the commercial real estate portfolio and there's a lot of concern about that," said Jack De Gan, chief investment officer at Harbor Advisory Corp, which owns GE shares in client portfolios.

"They acquired that portfolio very late in the rally for commercial real estate," De Gan said. "There's a lot of concern among investors there are significant write-downs yet to come out of that portfolio."

Standard and Poor's noted on Friday that delinquencies, charge-offs and nonperforming assets remain elevated across GE's major businesses, calling real estate credit performance and asset-value deterioration "particularly severe."

RISKS UNDERSTOOD

GE Real Estate's $84 billion in assets represent about 15 percent of total GE Capital assets of $551 billion.

Impairments in the real estate portfolio are "running above plan," GE Chief Financial Officer Keith Sherin told analysts on the company's earnings conference call. But Sherin added: "the risks are understood and manageable."

GE has taken $467 million in real estate equity impairments so far this year, versus an earlier outlook of less than $300 million. Total credit losses and impairments are $1.5 billion year-to-date, GE said.

Sherin said delinquencies were "right in line" with bank real estate portfolios, and noted GE's asset mix and geographic exposure are different than those of banks.

Delinquencies in the commercial real estate debt portfolio -- a warning sign that precedes defaults -- rose to 4.19 percent from 4.03 percent in the prior quarter. The percentage of non-earning assets rose slightly from the second quarter.

The company, which said it evaluates its debt portfolio twice a year, increased its reserves for potential losses on its debt portfolio, but said it was not clear the losses would materialize.

GE has been working to shrink its huge finance arm, which has been hit hard by the credit crunch, and on Friday stressed the strong performance of many of its infrastructure businesses. But GE CEO Jeff Immelt acknowledged the poor performance of GE Real Estate.

"All the other businesses at GE Capital are profitable except for Real Estate, and that is the one we are really going to have to work through," Immelt said.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Google Wooing Microsoft Business Customers

AFP


SAN FRANCISCO — Google on Monday ramped up a campaign to convert businesses worldwide into users of email, calendar, document and other software programs it offers online as services on the Internet.

"Gone Google" advertising was expanded to Britain, France, Canada, Japan, Australia, Singapore, and other countries.

Ads are being displayed in places such as train stations and airports "to help companies, schools and organizations learn all about the benefits of going Google with our enterprise products."

Google has been enhancing and expanding online software services as a trend toward Internet-based cloud computing has gained momentum.

Companies hustling to survive in grim economic conditions have been attracted to cost savings that stem from renting software instead of buying, installing and maintaining it on their own machines.

US software giant Microsoft has responded to the trend with a "software plus services" model that combines its core packaged products with programs hosted online.

Google Apps programs hosted on the Internet giant's computers are used by more than two million businesses in more than 100 countries, according to a blog post by Vivian Leung and Tom Oliveri of the Google Enterprise Team.

"Each day, thousands of companies choose to 'go Google,' that is, switch to Google Apps,' Leung and Oliveri said.

"These companies no longer have to deal with the hassles of managing email servers or rolling out software updates, and their employees now enjoy the convenience of shared documents and calendars, Gmail and more."

Konica Minolta, Rentokil Initial, and TOTO are among firms that have recently "gone Google," according to Leung and Oliveri.

Early this year, Microsoft added to its international menu Office Communications Online and Deskless Worker Suite software that handle tasks such as email, calendars, collaboration, and instant messaging.

Microsoft's new Windows 7 operating system to be released on Thursday and Office 2010 business software programs to make their debut next year have reportedly been crafted with cloud computing in mind.

IBM this month announced a basic "cloud computing" email service at a price that undercuts a plusher offering by Google.

IBM unabashedly pitched its new LotusLive iNotes as an alternative to email service Google has been promoting as part of a campaign to win businesses over to using applications hosted as services on the Internet.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Testing The Volvo Battery-Powered V70 And C30EV

From Popular Mechanics



Volvo has been researching hybrid drivelines for almost 20 years with its first hybrid concept car, the ECC hybrid, appearing in 1992. Electric drive seems a perfect fit for a company that lists the protection of the environment in its articles of association. The V70 range of station wagons is a solid candidate for hybridization, with a constituency of wealthy, environmentally savvy buyers who might be willing to fork out a little extra for a bit of right-on eco hardware in their family wagon.

Rather than go for a traditional hybrid, where Toyota's Prius has an almost unassailable lead, Volvo is choosing to leapfrog into plug-in technology with a diesel engine. With a conventional front-wheel drive 205-hp 2.4-liter diesel packing 331 lb-ft of torque under the hood, the V70 PHEV will operate in diesel-only mode most of the time. In the back, however, is a 12-kilowatt-hour, U.S.-made EnerDel lithium-ion battery pack that powers a 70-hp permanent-magnet AC motor with 162 lb-ft of torque driving the rear wheels. That, according to Volvo, is enough to propel this 4433-pound charabanc on electric-only power for a maximum of 31 miles, enough to cover over 75 percent of daily European commuting. Top speed using the diesel engine is about 135 mph; in electric mode it is limited to 80 mph and 0 to 62 mph acceleration is 8.9 seconds and 15 seconds, respectively.

As befits a Volvo, the emphasis is on safety, with the battery enclosed in a heavy steel cage that will withstand almost any conceivable accident, including a crunching offset rear impact. The separate diesel and electric drivelines also mean there is a rudimentary all-wheel-drive capability for when the going gets really sticky, which is also the basis of the forthcoming 4WD system from Land Rover.



The C30EV is an altogether more ambitious project, but one without a green light at present. Based on Volvo's attractive four-seat coupe, this 3250-pound car is powered with twin 330-pound lithium-ion battery packs (also from EnerDel) that sit under the rear seat and down the center of the vehicle. With a combined capacity of 24 kwh, these batteries provide enough juice to the 109-hp permanent-magnet motor with 137 lb-ft of torque, to give a range of 93 miles, a limited top speed of 81 mph and 0 to 62 mph acceleration of 10.5 seconds, though not all at the same time of course. That theoretical range is enough to cover more than 90 percent of European commuting.

The Drive


Climb in either of these cars and you quickly appreciate Volvo's fundamental grasp of driver ergonomics. These are the clearest and easiest to understand instruments on any electric car, with gauges for battery contents, charge and discharge, and a separate needle for the rate at which the car's ancillaries such as the heated windscreens, radio and so on are eating into the batteries' charge. Add in Volvo's immaculate passenger comfort, including brilliant seats and competent interior packaging, and electric power (hybrid or battery) seems as normal as, well, any other Volvo.

The V70 plug-in starts with a quick systems check followed by, um, silence. Select "Drive" on the standard automatic gearbox and this big station wagon rolls gently forward without you touching the accelerator. Volvo's engineers have designed this "creep," but also ensured it doesn't burn up battery capacity at the standstill.

The whirring estate fair races away from the standstill, a characteristic of electric-powered cars, which provide maximum torque at zero motor revolutions. The rear-mounted motor is very quiet and provides easy 50-mph cruising and wafting acceleration that is perfect for commuting, if not the interstate dash, where the diesel engine will start and can occasionally be boosted with the electric drive for high-power overtaking moments. The car feels heavy, but not impossibly so. Trouble is, that weight takes its toll and after just three gentle laps of the test track we had burned 2 kwh of the batteries' charge, which gives an effective range of just 18 miles. Fewer hills and much gentler driving would extend this, but it's still obvious that the V70's diesel engine is going to be running for a fair amount of time and then you are just dragging around 551-pounds of battery pack, control electronics, inverter and motor.

The C30EV doesn't have this drawback, in theory at least, as it has no conventional engine. But you can feel the considerable heft as you take off. The front-mounted motor is louder than the V70's, although a dodgy wheelbearing on the test car added to the overall cacophony. Acceleration is brisk but tails off as the speed increases. Without the planned distribution of the batteries (the test car only had a rear battery), it was difficult to judge the handling at extremes but the coupe felt stable and perfect for the suburban crawl, if not tearing around country roads.

The Bottom Line


Volvo is not in a position to lead the world into electric motoring. It lacks the money and the inertia. Even the V70 plug-in hybrid, which goes on sale next year, is a simple device that merely stores braking energy as volts and allows a bit of grid-powered driving. Volvo is banking on two things to make sense of the V70 and the C30EV. First: economies of scale that bring down the cost of lithium-ion batteries and second, that governments in Europe will restrict combustion engines in congested urban areas either with heavy tolls or outright bans.

In the first instance, it's worth noting that the cost of batteries has fallen by 30 percent since last December and looks like it might fall further. In the second, will the V70's mere 31 miles of electric-only range be enough to escape the European tolls? And will the V70 manage that range in normal driving?

As to the C30EV, this is a polished effort, which drives well and promises fine handling. Right now Volvo is doing the same math as most other companies: Do you sell or lease the battery? Do you get into bed with the electricity suppliers, or the battery recharging companies? The C30EV is an impressive start, but no one really knows what an electric future will look like and how it will work. With that in mind the best we can say is that Volvo's technology is certainly promising.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Christmas Shopping: Icon A5 Airplane From Neiman Marcus Catalog

From Media-Newswire


The world famous Neimann Marcus catalog has featured some of the world's most exotic gifts available.  One of the featured gifts is the pre ordering of an Icon a5 airplane at a cost of $250,000.  The plane is not even being built as of yet but does have a two year minimum waiting list as many have already placed orders.

The fantasy catalog this year does take into account the current recession with many budget minded gifts available.

Other gifts include an electric motorcycle that is said to be the world's fastest priced at over $70,000 and a dinner with eight top authors which is priced at $200,000.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Sirius XM, Yesterday and Today

From the Motley Fool


Five years may not seem like much when compared to the nearly 25 years that Bob Edwards served as a morning-show host on National Public Radio. But a lot has changed for Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) since he arrived.

Edwards was a pioneer. He migrated from terrestrial radio before bigger media icons Howard Stern, Oprah Winfrey, and Martha Stewart inked their big satellite-radio deals. Now Sirius is celebrating the fifth anniversary of Bob Edwards' arrival on satellite radio this month. The distinguished radio newsman joined XM shortly after it hit the 2-million-member milestone. Sirius was considerably smaller at the time. In fact, Sirius and XM together accounted for just 3 million subscribers.

Times have certainly changed. Even though this has been a rough year for subscriber acquisition and retention rates, Sirius XM still manages to claim 18.4 million subscribers. It's hard to think of any other premium subscriber-based industry that has grown sixfold over the past five years. Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) and DirecTV (Nasdaq: DTV) have broader audiences, but they definitely weren't as small as Sirius XM was in 2004.

Today's subscribers are also paying more for access, and that's important when you consider the scalability of the satellite-radio model and Sirius XM's need to beef up margins to command the market's respect.

After all, margins and profitability are crucial for any business. Five years ago, Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) had 2.2 million subscribers. Its user base has grown quickly, but it's a far cry from Sirius XM's audience. One of the reasons Netflix is a market darling while Sirius XM trades at a fraction of its 2004 price is that a lack of cash flow has forced Sirius XM into printing new shares to keep creditors away.

Now that Sirius XM has gotten its financial act in order, its hope is that the stock gains that failed to materialize during its subscriber-growth heyday can show up and help create a positive-cash-flow story. It would be ironic to see Sirius XM's stock rise as its user base flattens out or possibly even declines, but that's what the market needs to see before it buys into the satellite-radio model.

Enjoy the birthday cake, Edwards. Let's see how rich dessert tastes in five more years.

Google's E-Book Format Not Device Specific

From PC World

Google will launch an e-book store called Google Editions with a "don't be evil" twist. Unlike Google's biggest competitors, Amazon and Barnes & Noble, which rely heavily on restrictive DRM, Google's store will not be device-specific--allowing for e-books purchased through Google Editions to be read on the far greater number of e-book readers that will flood the market in 2010.

Google's e-books will be accessible through any Web-enabled computer, e-reader, or mobile phone instead of a dedicated device. This will allow content to be unchained from expensive devices such as Amazon's Kindle e-book reader. However, as democratizing as this sounds, it's still unclear how many people are ready to curl up with a Google Editions title on their laptop or smartphone, instead of the traditional paper format.

Google Editions: The Basics

The new e-book store will launch sometime during the first half of 2010, and will have about 500,000 titles at launch. Under Google's payment scheme, publishers will receive about 63 percent of the gross sales, and Google will keep the remaining 37 percent.

Google also hopes to offer Editions titles through other online book retailers. In this scenario, online retailers would get 55 percent of revenues minus a small fee paid to Google, and publishers would get 45 percent. Google may also create deals to sell Google Editions books directly through a book publisher's Web site, but no details have been announced for how that scenario would work, according to Read Write Web.

Google Editions as Web Apps?

Google's e-books would reportedly be indexed and searchable like many books are now through Google's Book Search, according to Reuters. Unlike titles offered through e-readers, Google Editions books would not have to be accessed through a dedicated reader or special application.

Instead, any device with a Web browser will be able to access a Google Editions book. After you purchase and access your online book for the first time, it will be cached in your browser making the book available when you're offline.

To me this sounds like Google wants to turn the e-book, or more accurately the e-reader, into a Web App. Considering Google's push with its yet-to-be-unveiled Chrome OS and the Chrome browser, turning books into Web Apps isn't a particularly surprising move.

But Is Google Editions a Game-Changer?

Whenever Google gets involved with any new business, the immediate assumption is that the company will be able to reshape the market. From the sounds of it, Google's plans may do just that, since it will make reading and accessing e-books nearly universal on almost any device that can get to the Web. However, Google is not the first company to deliver e-books to your PC. Companies like Buy Ebook and eBooks.com already do this, and the online social publishing site, Scribd started selling e-books earlier this year.

Google's use of the Web browser as an e-reader may make it slightly easier to access an e-book than these other retailers since Google will essentially shun the ePub and PDF formats. But one hurdle Google can't overcome is the fact that you'll be reading your book on a computer screen. And so far, reading e-books on a PC has not caught on.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Wal Mart Trying To Conquer World Markets`

Story from Business Week

It's rare that a $100 billion business can be marginalized, but such is the case with the international arm of Wal-Mart Stores (WMT). As a stand-alone company, it would rank among the top five global retailers. Inside the $401 billion retail giant, though, the business has traditionally received short shrift. Its Bentonville (Ark.) headquarters is underwhelming—a drab, largely windowless, one-story structure named after Bill Mitchell, a former Walmart executive whom nobody seems to remember.

Since venturing into Mexico in 1991, Walmart International has grown haphazardly. During the 1990s the retailer exported its big-box, low-price model. While that strategy worked in North America, the results were so bad in Germany and Korea that Walmart withdrew from those countries in 2006. In response, Michael T. Duke, the former international chief and current CEO, gave local managers more autonomy while instituting more stringent financial goals for each region.

The results are mixed: International sales rose 11.5% in the second quarter (before the impact of exchange rate fluctuations), while U.S. sales barely budged. But over the past few years, operating profit margins have declined on the international side, which now has 3,805 stores operating under 53 distinct banners in 15 markets. As international chief C. Douglas McMillon says, Walmart is "progressing from being a domestic company with an international division to being a global company."

A Tale of Four Countries

The trick is how to get there. Four countries illustrate the challenges the world's largest retailer will face in the coming years as it seeks new sources of global growth. In Japan, managers are trying to revitalize a business that has hemorrhaged money for years—weighed down by a ho-hum brand, the country's byzantine distribution system, and cultural resistance to the discount model. In India, restrictions on foreign ownership have forced the company to team up with conglomerate Bharti, an odd coupling that has so far resulted in one store. Walmart has spent more than five years in Russia, maintaining a team of 30 executives who are still trying to plot an entry strategy at a time when other foreign retailers, like Carrefour, are bulking up their presence. And in Chile, a decade-long courtship finally led to the acquisition of the country's leading supermarket chain earlier this year, bringing with it a different business model, based in part on financial services.

All four demonstrate the perilous but potentially lucrative terrain that lies outside the saturated retail markets of Europe and North America. And Walmart's success will ultimately hinge on its ability to learn from past mistakes and adapt quickly to the shifting realities of these markets. Ahead, a look at the company's strategies.

JAPAN

It's lunchtime at a newly remodeled Seiyu supermarket in Tokyo, and shoppers are swarming around bento boxes that sell for 289 yen, or about $3. In the back, peaches, bananas, and pears are stacked neatly in the bins they were shipped in while the front of the store houses bottles of Chianti and Burgundy from Asda, Walmart's British chain. Nami Misawa, 26, is looking through near-empty discount bins. The recession prompted her to come back to Seiyu, and she's glad she did. "This store used to be a mess," she says, "but now it looks great."

Misawa's newfound enthusiasm is welcome news for Walmart, which has taken a beating in Japan. It entered the country seven years ago with the purchase of a 6% stake in the 371-store Seiyu chain. Despite continued losses, Walmart gradually raised its stake, making Seiyu a wholly-owned subsidiary in June 2008.

Walmart has had to confront numerous issues in Japan, from longtime Seiyu managers resisting its initiatives to a tendency among Japanese shoppers to equate low prices with inferior products.

Bulk deals don't play well in a country where many live in small urban apartments, and the country's grocery distribution system is populated with wholesalers who broker deals between suppliers and retailers, skimming profits. Rival Carrefour abandoned the market years ago. "I have no idea why [Walmart is] still there," says Neil Z. Stern, a senior partner at consultancy McMillan/Doolittle.

Tapped for a Turnaround

Edward J. Kolodzieski is the man in charge of turning Seiyu around. As CEO of Walmart Japan, Kolodzieski has slashed expenses, closed 20 stores, and cut 29% of corporate staff. In-store butchers were removed, with most meat now processed in a central facility. With the freed-up floor space, Seiyu bulked up meals-to-go offerings. To bypass the middlemen, Seiyu has also boosted the number of products it imports directly from manufacturers by 25% over the past year, and is also focusing on increasing sales of its own private-label brands.

The biggest change, however, is a shift away from weekly specials to "everyday low prices" in areas like baby care and pet products, and, eventually, throughout the store. Taking a page from Britain's Asda, Seiyu instead uses its marketing dollars to compare prices against competitors. With the depth of the current recession, argues Tokyo-based business consultant Ken Hasebe, Japanese consumers "have finally accepted that you can buy quality merchandise for a lower price."

One positive sign: Seiyu has been posting positive comparable store sales since last November, including a 1.3% gain in same-store sales in the second quarter. (Comparable or same-store sales is a key retail metric that tracks the results of stores open a year or more.) Still, profit margins declined in the same period, proving that progress is slow: "It's taking a little longer than any of us would have liked," says CFO Thomas M. Schoewe.

INDIA AND RUSSIA

India and Russia are widely regarded as two of the world's fastest-growing retail markets—and two of the most frustrating for foreign retailers. Walmart boasts one wholesale outlet so far in India, and it has only a 30-person development office in Moscow to show after more than five years of scouting in Russia. But through a combination of joint ventures, acquisitions, and expansion, the retailer is hoping to become a major player in both.

India's $350 billion retail sector is composed of small family-run ventures, with organized chains accounting for less than 5% of sales. To get around government restrictions on foreign retailers selling to consumers, Walmart recently teamed up with Bharti Enterprises to open a cash-and-carry operation in the northern city of Amritsar. Best Price Modern Wholesale, as it's called, technically caters to merchants and small businesses. But with few restrictions, more than 30,000 members have signed up for the first store.

As in the U.S., the emphasis is on a wide selection of goods in one location at a low cost—everything from Castrol motor oil and sneakers to milk in large canisters that can be tied to the side of bicycles. Best Price employs 25 people to go around the region each week and check prices at mom-and-pop shops, to ensure that they're consistently offering the best value. Raj Jain, a former Whirlpool executive who now heads Walmart's Indian operations, also opened a training institute in Amritsar last December in partnership with Bharti and the Punjab government.

Have Tractor, Will Shop

With so few retail chains, employees have no background in the kind of merchandising and customer service skills needed to work at a large store. They also need to learn how to help customers with goods they have not seen before, such as the Japanese guava that some restaurant owners sampled on a recent visit.

Jain is also tapping Walmart's expertise to buy from farmers directly, cutting out local distributors. About 10% to 15% of Best Price's produce currently goes right from the field to the shelves, and Jain says he wants to increase that to 40% by next year.

Though small, the venture shows promise.

Jaideep Singh and his sister, Shalini, now drive a tractor 25 miles to pick up goods for their father's store. Jaideep says profits are up about 20% because of the low-priced goods that Best Price stocks. "We come two or three times a week," he says.
Confronting Russian Corruption

Walmart plans to open 10 to 15 outlets through the partnership over the next three years, eventually employing about 5,000 people. But McMillon wants to see Walmart running its own retail stores there, too. He pressed his case with commerce and agriculture ministers in New Delhi in July. "What I tried to convey is that we would invest more, and faster, if we had the opportunity to do so," he says. A representative from the Indian government declined to comment.

In Russia, the impediments to retail development are less visible but no less worrisome. Corruption is rampant with various administrative authorities capable of gumming up operations if payments are not made. Anticorruption group Transparency International ranked Russia 147th out of 180 countries on its most recent corruption perception index. In June, Swedish furniture retailer IKEA said it would halt further investment in Russia, citing the "unpredictability of administrative processes." The retailer's stores have been temporarily shut down in the past due to various questionable violations, and IKEA founder Ingvar Kamprad went on Swedish radio earlier this year to link those problems to IKEA's refusal to pay bribes in Russia. (A Russian government representative declined to comment.)

While Walmart is looking at opening its own stores in Russia, it's far more likely it will start by acquiring a local retailer. Analysts say the prime candidate is Lenta, a fast-growing, privately held chain of 34 hypermarkets and the nation's fifth-largest retailer. Lenta founder Oleg Zherebtsov is saddled with debts and sold his 35% stake to the investment group of private equity firm TPG and the private equity arm of Russian state bank VTB in early September. "There was a time when we felt that market was overpriced, and that has changed somewhat," says McMillon. With rivals such as Metro expanding their presence through new stores, and Carrefour opening its second outlet in September, "they cannot wait," says Planet Retail analyst Milos Ryba.

CHILE

Chilean shoppers strolling through the aisles of their local D&S supermarket recently came across something not usually offered by the discounter: Apple (AAPL) iPods. That's not the only change coming for the 224-store chain, which sold a majority stake to Walmart earlier this year for $1.6 billion. (It now owns about 75% of D&S.)

In acquiring D&S (short for Distribución y Servicio), the nation's leading grocer and third-largest retailer, Walmart hopes to cement its dominance in Latin America, where it is by far the biggest retailer with $38 billion in sales, estimates research firm Planet Retail, double that of its closest rival, Carrefour. In Chile, Walmart enters a market that has long been inhospitable to foreign retailers. Home Depot (HD), Carrefour, and J.C. Penney are among the companies that have tried, and failed, to make it in Chile, a nation of 17 million with the sixth-largest retail market in Latin America.

Rather than go it alone, as others have attempted, Walmart cultivated close ties with D&S for more than a decade: Bob L. Martin, who ran the international division in the 1990s, says he first visited Chile in 1997. D&S, in turn, modeled much of its business practices on Walmart, looking to Bentonville "as an icon," says Claudio Pizarro, a professor at the University of Chile. (Walmart also imports products like salmon from Chile.)

Financial Services a Draw

Walmart has increased D&S's expansion budget from $150 million to $250 million, which will go toward opening nearly 70 stores this year, many of them small stores that cater to lower-income shoppers, according to Vicente Trius, Walmart Latin America's president and CEO.

The appeal of D&S goes well beyond its stores. About 1.7 million Chileans carry a Presto card issued by its financial services unit, up from 1.2 million in 2004. "There is a saying here that large retailers generate sales with [stores] and earnings with their credit cards," says Rodrigo Rivera, a partner with the Boston Consulting Group in Santiago.

Indeed, some South American retail chains generate upwards of 70% of their profits from financial services, analysts estimate. (At D&S that figure is just 17%.) Walmart already offers financial services in Mexico and Brazil, though its attempts to launch a bank in the U.S. have failed. The retailer is keen to grow the Presto business by adding more low-risk services such as selling life insurance for outside vendors.

Achieving the right balance between local knowledge and global scale is not easy. "We're in the early stages," says McMillon. "But we know you can't run the world from one place."