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Thursday, December 4, 2008

Pennsylvainia Must Face Physicians' Liability Crisis

Donna Cooper, Pennsylvania's secretary of policy and planning, responding for Gov. Ed Rendell to my Oct. 25 op-ed "Pennsylvania Is Driving Its Doctors Away," raises several interesting points ("We're Trying to Help the Uninsured and Doctors, Too," Letters, Nov. 12).

Yes, about a $1 billion have been paid to the MCare fund over the past five years. This sum is from an extra tax on cigarette sales, mandated by the legislature for this purpose, and by a surcharge on moving traffic violations -- thus most Pennsylvania taxpayers contribute nothing to this fund. True, the state does not underwrite insurance costs for other professionals, most of which are so low they are not burdensome. Attorneys in Philadelphia Apartments pay about $2,500 a year for liability insurance; a surgeon pays up to 40 times that amount.

The 40% reduction in medical malpractice expenses referred to seems to be the reduction in payouts from the MCare fund attributable to tort and insurance reform legislation passed in 1996 and 2002, before Gov. Rendell assumed office. Physicians' annual liability premiums have decreased marginally.

Gov. Rendell is a master in the selective use of data and statistics. The figures I quoted on the number of physicians in Pennsylvania declining 6% between 2004 and 2006 and the figures on physician age in Pennsylvania are from the Pennsylvania Department of Health, a part of Gov. Rendell's administration, and my other figures are from the National Practitioner Data Bank and the American Medical Association Masterfile. I will stand by the figures I quoted. I hope the governor will stand by those of his own administration.

The surplus in the MCare fund is $100 million, and surplus in the retention account is $500 million. The latter was intended to be transferred to the MCare fund to provide abatements that physicians have been afforded for the last several years, but Gov. Rendell refuses to authorize this transfer, and instead advocates legislative action to fund his health-care plan with this money intended to provide liability premium relief to physicians. This is what I meant by the fund "being raided" ("And ladies and gentlemen, his fingers never leave his hand . . .").

Of course, we do not blame Gov. Rendell for an unsustainable professional liability situation that existed here and elsewhere before he took office. Optimism rose when he convened a professionally diverse task force to study the issue even before his inauguration in 2003. But when his own task force was about to recommend a cap on pain and suffering rewards, he refused to let them vote.

The dismissive comments about the obstetrician shortage being longstanding does not help the patients involved. I would comment that if you have dug yourself into a hole, it's time to stop digging. Right now Gov. Rendell is perceived as part of the problem, rather than part of the solution. It is time for him and the state house to man up and address the two important issues of health insurance and physician liability premiums separately.

US Rethinks Roles Of Fannie, Freddie

America's $11 trillion home-mortgage market is heading for a makeover.

Mortgage lending in the U.S. relies heavily on institutions set up in the 1930s by politicians and government officials seeking remedies for the Great Depression. Now, bankers say, the current economic crisis will force Congress and the Obama administration to decide how to repair or rebuild those institutions, including Fannie Mae, the Federal Home Loan Banks and the Federal Housing Administration.

The main focus is on the government-backed buyers of home loans: Fannie Mae, created in 1938, and its younger cousin, Freddie Mac, formed in 1970. Heavy losses stemming from mortgage defaults prompted regulators to seize control of the two companies Sept. 6. Though hobbled by those losses, Fannie and Freddie still buy or guarantee more than half of all home loans in the U.S. The economic situation is really affecting business of the Raleigh Real Estate, Wilson Real Estate, High Point Real Estate, Gated Community Hillsborough NC and Estate Homes Raleigh markets.

The Treasury Department has agreed to provide them capital as needed, and the Federal Reserve said last week that it would spend as much as $600 billion buying debt and mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie and Freddie over several quarters.

The consensus among both Republicans and Democrats is that the current structure of Fannie and Freddie doesn't work. Though they are owned mainly by private shareholders, they have a public mission to support the housing market. That has led to conflicts between shareholders' desire for maximum profits and congressional demands for more support to the housing industry.

A series of policy options compiled from various sources by Andrew Davidson, a mortgage-industry consultant, calls for turning Fannie and Freddie into cooperatives owned by the lenders that sell mortgages to them. These cooperatives would package mortgages into securities for sale to investors. Unlike Fannie and Freddie, the cooperatives wouldn't own large amounts of loans and related securities on their books. To make the securities more attractive to investors, Treasury would receive fees for agreeing to cover any losses on the securities above a certain level.

This explicit backing from Treasury would replace the current system under which investors merely assumed that the government would stand behind Fannie and Freddie. Many investors, especially those overseas, have lost confidence in that "implied" guarantee and want something definite.

This approach would take away from Fannie and Freddie their traditional duties of ensuring liquidity in the market by buying mortgage securities when other investors back away and of making special efforts to finance housing for poor people. If Congress sees a need for such functions, Mr. Davidson says, it should set up government programs to achieve them and allocate funds for those purposes.

A complication is that home builders and Realtors, both powerful lobbying groups, argue for a continuing federal role for Fannie and Freddie to ensure a steady flow of money into home mortgages, even when private investors recoil from the risk. Bank-controlled cooperatives, on their own, wouldn't provide the degree of support for housing that these lobbying groups want.

Rep. Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, will have a key role in this debate. He doesn't favor the status quo; the "hybrid system" of private shareholders and a public mission "didn't work well," he said in a recent interview. Rep. Frank said there may be a case for separating their current functions into different entities, one to finance housing that is affordable for low- and moderate-income people and another to ensure adequate funding for the mortgage market in general.

Congress also may tinker with the 12 regional Federal Home Loan Banks, which lend money to more than 8,000 commercial banks, thrifts, credit unions and insurers. These loans are a big source of funding for mortgages. But the home-loan banks also borrow based on an implied guarantee that no longer looks so attractive to many investors. Mr. Davidson says the home-loan banks may have to pay fees for an explicit government guarantee of their debt.

Retiree Havens Turn Younger To Combat the Housing Bust

DEERFIELD BEACH, Fla. -- For Sheldon Behr, buying a condo in Century Village East has meant the chance to live out his retirement years with other older adults who enjoy golf, long walks and comedy nights at the clubhouse. But with the financial crisis deepening and the housing market stalled, a growing number of units at the 55-and-over community are lying vacant.

Some residents are now considering the once unthinkable: letting younger people in -- a proposition that has pitted neighbor against neighbor. "We don't want someone to come in and suddenly have a flock of kids," says Mr. Behr, 65 years old, who opposes the move. "That'll destroy our village forever."

At "active adult" developments across the U.S., residents are debating whether to scrap the age restrictions that have helped define their way of life for almost five decades. Proponents of "age desegregation," as it's known in the industry, say opening the doors to people under 55 is the only way their once-idyllic enclaves can stay afloat amid a worsening economic climate.

From Florida to Arizona, condos are sitting idle as potential buyers find themselves stuck, unable to sell their houses and relocate. Residents of one New Jersey 55-plus development are living next to open foundations, with only 32 of 175 planned homes sold. And with retirement accounts hammered by the investment markets' plunge, people living in these communities are falling behind on homeowners' dues and scaling back on clubhouse activities.

But desegregation is nonetheless a hard sell among some residents of these developments, who say the change would ruin the dream they bought into in the first place. An influx of younger residents could also affect relations with surrounding neighborhoods. Municipalities have long favored developments for retirees because they don't require additional services like schools.

"Towns see these people as contributing to the tax base but not costing the community so much," says William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. "But there is a whole host of ancillary services that go with having lots of young children and teenagers. Then, you're talking about a significant increase in municipal expenses."

No one is predicting that age-restricted living will disappear entirely. But the financial downturn could be the tipping point that forces some places to reinvent themselves.

Many of these communities had already been struggling with declining sales as aging baby boomers either postpone retirement or opt to retire elsewhere. Last year, about 1.1 million households could be found in active-adult settings, down from 1.8 million in 2001, according to the National Association of Home Builders. And in a recent survey by AARP, the membership group for older Americans, almost nine in 10 people said they don't want to move at all in retirement; instead, they want to "age in place."

Retirement communities were popularized in the early 1960s by real-estate entrepreneurs like Del Webb, whose Sun City developments promoted the idea of a leisure-filled lifestyle specifically for older adults. In Arizona, California and Florida, retirees lined up to buy one-story villas bordering golf courses.

Usually run by elected boards of homeowners, these communities have spread to the Midwest and Northeast in recent years. They usually offer activities geared toward retirees, feature strict rules about homes' appearances, and have their own security staff and volunteer "posses" to keep an eye out for violations.

Typically, 80% of residents in active-adult communities must be at least 55 years old to meet federal regulations that allow developments to exclude children. (Many neighborhoods have rules requiring one household member to meet the age requirement.) Some enjoy low taxes. Residents of Sun City, a retirement community in Sun City, Ariz., for instance, don't pay city taxes because the development is technically unincorporated. They also pay relatively low school taxes, making their overall tax burden one-half to two-thirds lower than people in nearby towns, according to the Arizona Department of Commerce.
Lower Age Requirement

Last year, residents of the nearby Sun City Grand in Surprise, Ariz., voted to lower their age requirement to 45 from 55 -- though children under age 19 still aren't allowed as permanent residents.

The board of the 9,802-unit development, built in 1996, "felt like it would help our community financially in many areas," says Meda Cates, membership director for the Sun City Grand Community Association. "As people grow older, they stay home more. They don't golf, they don't use the facilities or the restaurants."

John Longabaugh, a city councilman who lives in the development, puts it this way: "If everybody's 80, nobody's using the two weight rooms."

Since Sun City Grand relaxed its age restrictions, the community has drawn people like Tom Butler, 48, a kitchen designer, and his wife, Jill, who is 53. The place popped up on their radar a year ago, when Ms. Butler visited her daughter-in-law's grandparents, who live in the community. She says she was "totally charmed by it," and drawn to the "plethora of activities." This fall, the couple bought one of Sun City Grand's "Casita" models, a ranch-style home with a pool and a guest house. "Sometimes, people look at us and say, 'You're not old enough to be here,' " says Ms. Butler. "But we take it as a compliment."

No one tracks the number of active-adult communities that are lowering their age limits or dropping them altogether. But developers and homeowners' associations say it's becoming the strategy-of-last-resort the longer homes sit vacant. Leisure World in Mesa, Ariz., has loosened its age requirements, and the homeowners' association at Arizona Traditions, another development in Surprise, is mulling whether to lower the minimum age to 45. In New Jersey, the age restrictions have been lowered or dropped for at least nine new projects, while an additional 10 planned developments were scrapped altogether, says Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group Inc., a real estate market-analysis firm in East Brunswick, N.J

At the Esplanade in Hudson, Mass., near Boston, people 55 and older can buy two-bedroom condominiums for about $250,000. Movies play on a big-screen TV in the common area on Saturday nights, regular groups play dominoes, and there are leaf-peeping outings to New Hampshire.

But since it broke ground in 2005, only two-thirds of the Esplanade's 140 units have been sold. The company has recouped $20 million of its $32 million in construction costs, says Joanne Foley, the attorney for MP Development LLC, which built the Esplanade. So last March, MP petitioned the town of Hudson to allow it to sell condos there to younger buyers.

Lou Tagliani, a 67-year-old retired physicist, is among the residents who have spoken out against the plan. He and his wife moved into the Esplanade because "we want to live with people our own age and interests," he says. Bringing in younger people "would change the general complexion of the community."

So far, homeowners in Mr. Tagliani's camp are winning: Hudson's town government in September denied the developer's request, saying that changing the rules would be unfair to residents who already had purchased units. In an effort to stave off an appeal by the developer to state officials, residents are hosting open houses and tours for prospective buyers their own age. Ms. Foley says relaxing the rules wouldn't harm the community, but so far, MP has no plans to appeal.

In Century Village, the three-decades-old retirement development in Deerfield Beach, some units are empty because grown children who inherited them can't sell them. Kenneth Barnett, the treasurer for the village management, says often the families don't pay the insurance or the monthly dues, which amount to about $5,000 a year for each unit.

The community is composed of 254 white stucco condominium buildings, nearly all governed by their own board of directors. Those boards are generally allowed to approve sales to people under age 55. Until recently, such sales were almost unheard of. But with two-bedroom condos that would have sold for $120,000 two years ago now as low as $40,000, younger people living in the area are now trying to move in, and are arguing their cases to condo boards.

Martin Cohen, an 88-year-old retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and resident of Century Village, voices common concerns about younger people moving in: "They speed. They use Century Boulevard as a race track," he says. But some buildings have decided they prefer that scenario to empty units.

Roy Landesman, an 89-year-old retired door-hinge salesman from New York, says 10% of the units in his condominium building are vacant. So his building is letting younger families move in; he now has a neighbor in her 20s. Century Village East's Master Management, which maintains the development, including its 16 swimming pools and 765 acres of palm trees and canals, "doesn't like it, but I don't care what they say," Mr. Landesman says.

Donna Capobianco, president of Master Management, says the community is financially viable as it is, and that there are many older retirees who want to move into Century Village, but who are waiting for prices to drop even more.
A 'Natural Way' to Live

Newer retirement communities could go the way of Pine River Village, originally sold as a 55-plus development in Lakewood, N.J. Over the past three years, hundreds of potential buyers had joined the waiting list for Pine River, but by this November, only 32 houses had been sold of the 175 that were planned. The developer, Ralph Zucker, appealed to Pine River's residents a few months ago to agree to let him eliminate age restrictions from the rest of the development, which they did. Now, he is trying to persuade the town to approve the plan.

Lakewood Mayor Raymond Coles says that township officials are sympathetic, but they are trying to sort out whether it's legal to change the zoning because the project is part of a redevelopment zone that specifically called for senior housing.

Residents have spoken up at public meetings in favor of the request. They say they realize that Mr. Zucker can't maintain the development, with its fitness center, indoor pool with a retractable roof, and elaborate landscaping, without monthly dues from more residents. They also worry that unless dozens of houses are built on the vast expanse of cleared land they can see out their windows, their property values could slide; they paid between $350,000 and $700,000 for their houses. Their monthly homeowner's association fees of $260 a month, based on 175 houses, could also climb sharply.

Some are tired of living in a construction zone. Mordechai and Hadassah Goodman moved to Pine River in February after retiring from Chicago to be closer to children and grandchildren. But as the finishing touches were being put on their home, construction in the rest of the community was grinding to a halt. Their manicured lawn borders acres of plowed-up dirt, cinder-block outlines of future homes, and 9-foot-deep foundations on otherwise vacant lots.

"I was out here playing football with one of the grandchildren -- and kicked the ball right into [an open] basement," says Mr. Goodman, a 71-year-old retired math professor.

To ease residents' concerns, Mr. Zucker has agreed to group younger buyers on one side of the village, create separate entrances, and plant shrubbery -- or even build a fence -- in between, if the plan is approved.

Some of Pine River's residents acknowledge that they're having to adjust their expectations for retirement. Mrs. Goodman, 64, says she's now looking forward to having younger neighbors: "It seems like a more natural way to live."

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Sun Mirco Slashes Jobs

Sun Microsystems Inc., responding to a technology-spending slowdown and pressure from impatient investors, said it will cut 5,000 to 6,000 employees in the latest of a series of restructuring moves.

The one-time Silicon Valley star also announced organizational changes to align its business with what the industry calls open-source software.

"We are adapting the company to the global economy as we and our industry see it," said Jonathan Schwartz, Sun's chief executive officer.

The layoffs represent 15% to 18% of Sun's workforce. The size of the job cuts -- after eight prior restructuring actions -- was widely viewed as overdue.

"They are finally realizing they have to get a lot more aggressive in bringing cost down," said Lou Miscioscia, an analyst at Cowen & Co.

Some analysts have been pushing for even more dramatic action, such as selling some or all of the company. Mr. Miscioscia added that Wall Street may be souring on Mr. Schwartz and thinking "it's time to let somebody else run the business."

But Sun's depressed stock -- which hit its lowest level in 14 years Thursday -- has attracted some big investors. Value investor Southeastern Asset Management disclosed last month that it holds about 20% of the company's shares. And San Diego-based Relational Investors, led by activist shareholder Ralph Whitworth, has accumulated a stake of about 3% since June.

"It's a trophy franchise and it's selling at an incredible price," said Mr. Whitworth, who said he has spoken to Mr. Schwartz. "There is work to do, and they are doing it."

Sun's shares Friday rose 1%, or 4 cents a share, to $4.12, in 4 p.m. trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The company's market valuation, which once topped $120 billion, stands at about $3.04 billion, below the $3.1 billion in cash and securities the company reported on its balance sheet as of Sept. 28.

Sun followed a string of high-tech companies announcing job cuts in recent weeks, including Applied Materials Inc. and National Semiconductor Corp. But its problems predate the current economic downdraft.

The company, based in Santa Clara, Calif., has struggled to find a formula for consistent growth since the Internet boom, when its servers were a mainstay for companies setting up Web sites.

Sun's sales collapsed along with the Internet bubble, and customers later gravitated to lower-cost servers based on x86 chips from Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. -- and away from Sun's Sparc chip technology.

Sun now makes x86 machines, too, but their sales have not made up for slowing sales in more-lucrative high-end Sparc machines. The company has also spent heavily on software and acquisitions without generating much revenue growth.

Its problems were exacerbated as financial-services customers -- one of Sun's biggest customer groups -- began slowing technology spending earlier this year. Revenue declined 7% in the fiscal first quarter ended in September. Sun posted a $1.68 billion loss in the period, including a $1.45 billion write-down related to its 2005 acquisition of Storage Technology Corp.

Sun's restructuring is expected to reduce expenses by about $700 million to $800 million annually. It expects total restructuring charges in the range of $500 million to $600 million over the next 12 months.

Many of Sun's organizational changes are aimed at boosting sales of open-source software, which is designed to let programmers modify the code used to make popular Sun products include the Solaris operating system and MySQL, a database.

One executive who will play a leading role is Anil Gadre, who shifts from chief marketing officer to run a new "application platform" group. Other software, including Solaris, will be shifted to the systems group, under Executive Vice President John Fowler. A third group, under Senior Vice President Dave Douglas, will focus on "cloud computing" -- a term that generally relates to computer-services delivered through the Web.

Rich Green, Sun's high-profile executive vice president of software, has decided to leave the company because many of his products will shift to the systems group, Mr. Schwartz said. Mr. Green could not be reached for comment.

Mr. Schwartz emphasized that sales of another line of machines based on a line of Sparc chips, code-named Niagara, would remain a key focus of the company. Asked if he had considered selling Sun, Mr. Schwartz said, "We are focused on growing long-term shareholder value."

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Gowing Better Decaf

From Madagascar to Costa Rica, farmers, scientists and multinational companies have been racing to deliver an elusive product -- a gourmet coffee bean that's naturally low in caffeine.

Coffee companies have been spending millions of dollars identifying, breeding and, in some cases, genetically manipulating promising coffee varietals. They've rooted through seed banks, assembled teams of agronomists and tasted countless cups of coffee, all in pursuit of what some people call the industry's holy grail, a bean that produces a great-tasting cup of "low-caf."

Italian roaster Illycaffè introduced Idillyum, its low-caffeine bean, in Italy in early October and plans to offer limited quantities in the United States starting Monday. The UCC Ueshima Coffee Co., one of Japan's biggest roasters, has begun selling limited supplies of its low-caf Bourbon Pointu beans in Japan for about $300 a pound. Brazilian grower Daterra Coffee is selling its Opus I Exotic at a handful of coffee shops around the U.S. as well as to several wholesalers. And the Costa Rica-based Doka Estate, which is owned by the Vargas coffee family, plans to start exporting its own low-caf beans next year for roasting and taste tests, with commercial sales expected to begin in the U.S. in 2011. The company's clients include American chains such as Caribou Coffee and Peet's Coffee & Tea. Peets makes tea such as Black Tea, Tea Gifts, Green Tea, Decaf Tea, Herbal Tea and Chai Tea.

We organized a blind tasting of coffee made from three new naturally low-caffeine beans: Daterra's Opus I Exotic; UCC Ueshima's Bourbon Pointu; and Illy's Idillyum espresso. For comparison, we also included a full-caffeine coffee, Intelligentsia's Los Inmortales, as well as the decaf house blend from Stumptown Coffee Roasters, based in Portland, Ore. , in the tasting.

Our tasters were Dan Griffin, of New York coffee consultancy Tamp Tamp; Kevin Mahan, managing partner of Gramercy Tavern in New York; Oren Bloostein, owner of New York specialty coffee roaster and retailer Oren's Daily Roast; and Steve Colten, a coffee merchant and former president of the Specialty Coffee Association of America.

The new low-cafs were in for a challenge. All four panelists said that as a rule they prefer drinking regular coffee. Mr. Griffin says he routinely tells his café clients not to serve decaf at all. "I drink coffee for the complexity, for the sweetness, for the beauty of the flavor," he says. "With the decaf, it's just not there."

To minimize some of the variables that could affect the quality and taste, we had four of the coffees roasted on the same day, though this was done by four different roasters, and prepared the same way: the beans were ground before the tasting and steep-brewed. The fifth coffee, Illy's Idillyum espresso, had been roasted at an earlier date and was packaged in a pre-ground espresso pod. It was prepared in the Illy coffee maker for which it was designed.

Here are the results, obtained after much slurping and spitting.

Bourbon Pointu

All four tasters chose UCC Ueshima's low-caffeine coffee as the best cup, although their enthusiasm for it varied. Mr. Colten dubbed it "fabulous," praising its body and maintenance of flavor from hot to lukewarm. Mr. Mahan detected a note of canned pineapple but liked the coffee's acidity. Mr. Griffin thought the coffee was "out of balance" but said, "if this is a decaf, they did a pretty good job." Mr. Bloostein faulted the coffee for having "little complexity" but said it had the best acidity.

Opus I Exotic

Daterra's decaf got the least favorable ratings. Mr. Bloostein noted a "soapy" aroma and a slightly nutty and sour taste. Mr. Colten said it was inconsistent as it cooled and deemed it a "very ordinary" coffee -- "certainly not a specialty." Mr. Mahan tasted notes of seaweed and spinach as the coffee cooled, and said the aroma reminded him of a bowl of Chex cereal. Mr. Griffin called the coffee "not balanced" and "kind of flat." But after learning its provenance, both he and Mr. Colten said they had tasted it before and that it had made a decent cup of coffee.

Idillyum

Illy's decaf received mixed reviews. Mr. Mahan thought it was a little bitter, but added, "If that's a decaf espresso, I'd have it for sure." Messrs. Bloostein and Griffin said the coffee lacked complexity, and Mr. Bloostein found an unappealing raw note as it cooled. Mr. Colten says he rarely drinks espresso but that he liked the Idillyum. "There was a lot of clarity all the way through," he said.

Coffee companies have been looking for ways to perk up the $2 billion decaf business, which has remained flat in recent years. A bean that is naturally low in caffeine but produces complex, flavorful coffee "would be a huge innovation," says Geoff Watts, green-coffee buyer for the Chicago-based specialty roaster Intelligentsia Coffee.

Decaf coffee has long been considered inferior to regular, something that coffee experts attribute to the decaffeination process itself. Typically, coffee beans are steamed open and then soaked in a chemical solution like ethyl acetate, which draws out the caffeine but also flushes away some of the fats and oils that give coffee its aroma and taste. Some decaffeinators use water processing to remove caffeine.

The new beans have more caffeine than most decaffeinated beans, but up to 50% less caffeine than regular Arabica beans, the type used to make specialty coffees. The low-caf beans are a glossy brown and, to the untrained eye, virtually indistinguishable from other coffee beans in both appearance and smell.

Some are getting high marks from top buyers in the industry. Lindsey Bolger, coffee director for Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, calls the Doka Estate coffee one of the best she's tasted in her 20-year career. "It was sweet, clean and juicy," she recalls of a tasting in Costa Rica last spring. "It was a refreshing coffee, and I never describe coffee as being refreshing."

Experiencing something "new and good is rare," says Doug Welsh, Peet's vice president of coffee, who attended the same tasting.

Most of the coffee cultivated commercially today is made up of two primary species. Robusta, a hardy bean that grows largely in a narrow band around the Equator and has about 3% caffeine by weight, is used in lower-tier coffees sold at most convenience and grocery stores. Arabica, typically grown in higher-altitude regions near the Equator, has about half as much caffeine and is used in the lattes, mocha grandes and double espressos sold at chains like Starbucks and Dunkin' Donuts.

Illy was one of the first companies to embark on a serious quest to develop a flavorful, low-caf coffee bean. In 1989, Andrea Illy, 44, the third generation of Illys to head the 75-year-old Italian roaster, learned that an American coffee company was preparing to toss its research collection of some 185,000 coffee plants and acquired it. The collection included about 20,000 plants of a low-caffeine Arabica varietal called Laurina. The delicate varietal is known to produce high-quality beans but is also low-yielding and sensitive to disease and pests (caffeine is a natural pesticide).

Mr. Illy assembled a team of nine agronomists and technicians, who spent the next five years identifying Laurina plants in the collection on which to build a low-caffeine bean. They narrowed in on 15 "mother plants" based on characteristics such as productivity and coffee quality.

"It's like a funnel. You start from many and you reduce, reduce, reduce," Mr. Illy says.

The results of the earliest field tests in Brazil were so abysmal, however, that Mr. Illy considered scrapping the project. "There was a lot of mortality," he says.

By the time Illy began conducting more successful field tests of the plant in the rich volcanic soil of El Salvador in 2000, several companies had already begun assembling low-caf teams of their own, and others were soon to follow.

Like the llly crew, some were honing in on the Laurina plant, easily identified by its distinctive Christmas-tree shape. The Doka Estate began to experiment with the plant in Costa Rica in 2002, after Edgardo Alpizar, a member of the Vargas family doing his graduate studies in agronomy, stumbled upon a lone Laurina tree near the site of his field work in San Jose. He planted 80 seeds of the plant on the slope of a volcano on his family's coffee estate. At an elevation of more than 5,000 feet, he observed, low yields and disease did not seem to be a problem. He kept increasing his production.

That same year, UCC Ueshima teamed up with a French agricultural research group and a local cooperative of growers in Réunion, a French island off the coast of Madagascar, and began cultivating Bourbon Pointu trees, an Arabica varietal that some agronomists say is the same as the Laurina.

Meanwhile, Brazil's Daterra Coffee was hybridizing a descendant of a low-caffeine varietal from Ethiopia that had been stored at a Brazilian university's germaplasm bank. In Hawaii, a private research company called Integrated Coffee Technologies was trying to figure out how to turn off a gene in the caffeine pathway that would inhibit its expression in the bean.

Companies including Starbucks and Dunkin' Donuts say they are not working on similar efforts. (A spokesperson for Kraft, which owns Maxwell House, declined to comment.) Stan Frankenthaler, executive chef and director of culinary development for Dunkin' Brands, says he is watching the development of the low-caf beans with great interest, although he has yet to taste the new varietals. He questions whether caffeine levels will be low enough to appeal to decaf drinkers and wonders how good the coffee will taste.

"When you're hybridizing for an over-expression of one attribute, the question becomes: Do I affect any other attributes within this variety? Is there any loss? Are there any other gains?"

Stephen Leach, the global buyer for coffee importer and exporter Maranatha, says it remains to be seen whether growers can keep their caffeine levels stable, since it can take years for the characteristics of a new agricultural product to stabilize.

Caffeine is one of the most widely consumed drugs in the world, and it's a profitable, if controversial one. A significant part of the profit many decaffeinators make comes from sales of the caffeine they extract from coffee beans and sell to soda and pharmaceutical companies, according to Frank Dennis, chief executive of Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee Co., a Canadian company that does not resell caffeine.

That coffee contains caffeine, which many consumers say heightens their sense of alertness and well-being, may account for the fact that demand for coffee has remained relatively consistent, despite price fluctuations.

Research also suggests that there's a natural, optimal level for caffeine or similar stimulants in the bloodstream, and that people regulate that level by adjusting how much they consume. Some coffee makers say a great-tasting, lower-caffeine coffee could result in bigger profits, in part because caffeine-seekers might be inclined to drink more of it. "If you have lower-caffeine content with higher pleasure, you might be able to repeat your little luxury several times a day," Mr. Illy says.

The Illy team is currently working on details of the American launch of their low-caf line. But recently, high above Manhattan in Illycaffè's New York headquarters on Madison Avenue, all attention was focused for a moment on the coffee. The low buzz of an espresso machine had just fallen silent, and Mr. Illy poured a cup of Idillyum. It looked similar to any well-made espresso, with a thick layer of foam and a burnished caramel color. And the taste? Strong and acidic, at least to someone used to sweet, milky coffee.

To Mr. Illy, who ticked off notes of jasmine and chocolate, the cup was the fruition of nearly 20 years of research. "Coffee can be about experiencing incredible flavor and taste, which is inspiring the emotion, or it can be about the caffeine kick," he said. "We hate that, because you can get your caffeine kick with a pill, with a lousy coffee, with anything."

Mr. Illy lifted his cup of coffee into the air and inspected it. "For us, the lower the caffeine content, the better."

Conjuring an Old Master

My ready answer to the question "What's your favorite golf course?" has long been National Golf Links of America, a super-private enclave on the eastern end of Long Island, N.Y., that I've been lucky to play three times. Designed and built 100 years ago by Charles Blair Macdonald, the National was this country's first great course. The holes were modeled after classics from Great Britain, which Mr. Macdonald studied during many visits there dating back to his university days at St. Andrews in Scotland. The National is not a wildly difficult course, it's just fun to play, allowing golfers many options, and has fabulous views of Great Peconic Bay.

Last week, here in remote southern Oregon, I got a chance to sample 10 holes, and learn about the others still under construction, at the Bandon Dunes golf resort's newest course, which is an homage to the style and spirit of the National and its creator. To be called Old Macdonald and scheduled to open in 2010, the course unspools through rugged sand dunes adjacent to the resort's other three courses, and includes two greens (No. 7 and No. 15) directly overlooking the Pacific. With time, Old Macdonald could become as well regarded as the National and may be even more fun to play. Another fun place to play is on Luxury Cruises.

Mike Keiser, the recycled-greeting-card magnate who founded Bandon Dunes, counts National as his favorite course, too. But Old Macdonald will not be a so-called replica course. Rather, it's an attempt to channel Mr. Macdonald through the person of architect Tom Doak and the brain trust of Macdonald experts advising him. They include: Jim Urbina, Mr. Doak's lead associate and co-designer on the project; George Bahto, author of the definitive Macdonald biography, "The Evangelist of Golf"; Bradley Klein, the architecture critic for Golfweek; and Karl Olson, for many years the course superintendent at the National.

Given the bulk of low-lying land that Mr. Doak and team will be responding to "as if they were C.B. Macdonald," Mr. Keiser said that golfers may see as much St. Andrews in the course as they do the National. That will be especially true from the inland clubhouse, with its view of the conjoined first and 18th fairways, as at St. Andrews. "The first impression will be big -- big fairways, big greens, just big," he said. Golf courses are services by lawn care services professionals.

Mr. Doak, 47 years old, is well-steeped in the source material. He did a postgraduate grant year studying the courses of Great Britain, caddied for three months at St. Andrews and is intimately familiar with Mr. Macdonald's other best designs, such as Chicago Golf Club, Mid Ocean Club in Bermuda and Yale Golf Course in Connecticut. His own highly regarded designs include Cape Kidnappers in New Zealand (featured this weekend in the Kiwi Challenge on NBC) and Pacific Dunes at Bandon Dunes, ranked No. 2 on Golfweek's list of the best courses built since 1962.

Some of the holes at the new course are modeled specifically after famous Macdonald holes or their prototypes in Scotland and England. There is, for instance, an Alps hole like No. 3 at the National and a Road hole like the 17th at St. Andrews. But many are simply Macdonaldesque, which means wide fairways rippled with hummocks and swales, scruffy-looking bunkers and vast greens, a few more than 20,000 square feet in size. That's three or four times larger than typical U.S. greens.

"Macdonald wasn't a fan of linear corridors that forced golfers to play holes a certain way," Mr. Doak said during a walkaround last week. "He was all about giving golfers different angles into the greens. He wanted them to stand on the tee and have to think about what strategy to use, depending on the wind, state of Lawn Care, or their mood or where they stood in a match."

Those options are why playing Old Macdonald will be such a kick. The "Peekaboo" round that I horned in on, which was also Messrs. Doak and Keiser's first time around the 10 playable holes on the course, suggests that golfers won't usually find much trouble off the tee. On most holes you can hit away, and good drives will be rewarded with bounds into ideal positions from which to attack the pin. (The fairways play very firm and fast; Mr. Doak said that the difference between drives into the wind and with it can be 80 to 100 yards.) Poor drives, on the other hand, will be subtly penalized. On the long, par-four fourth, for instance, a tee shot that slides just a bit right will veer down the side of a 20-foot mound, leaving a blind approach shot. If the ball stays on top, the shot will be much easier, but both balls will be in the fairway.

The greens, however, are what set Old Macdonald apart from any course I've played. They dip, rise and blend so seamlessly into the surrounding landforms that you can't even tell where they begin; the fine fescue grass on the greens, tees and fairways is uniform, with no sharp mowing lines to differentiate one from the other. (This look harkens back to the earliest courses, when sheep were the maintenance crew.) Most greens are a jumble of carefully crafted internal contours with, in most cases, at least a dozen relatively flat "pinnable areas" where holes can be cut, creating many times that number of wild, undulating chips, pitches, 100-foot-plus lag putts and other recovery shots to reach them. Shots like those are only possible on grass treated with Organic Lawn Care.

"This is where the real fun of a Macdonald green kicks in," Mr. Doak said.

Unlike most architects, Mr. Doak and his team don't draw up detailed plans for their courses before building. Instead, the routing and individual hole designs emerge from "walking around and talking," as Mr. Bahto put it. During my visit, the focal point was the 17th hole, a par-five that will have a divided fairway. Over two days in the Oregon rain, I saw crew members in clumps of two or three (except for Mr. Doak, who often wandered alone) roving up and down the would-be hole, pondering its future. A creek to divide the fairways was discussed and rejected as unnatural. The hilly left shoulder of the east fairway was "softened" with a bulldozer to be less penal. After much discussion, the site for a bunker halfway down the hole was finally selected, flagged and dug out. But still parts of the puzzle of the 17th, including the approaches to the green, remained unsolved.

The final say on all decisions, of course, belongs to Mr. Keiser, the owner, and his perspective is that of the everyday golfer, not the golf-design cognoscenti. "I hope that the Macdonald look will be popular. My presumption is that the National, if it were public, would be very popular, and that's why we're here," he said. "But I also assume that most won't have any idea who C.B. Macdonald was and they won't care. I just hope that when they leave they'll think, 'That was fun.' " Even if they have no idea why.

Costco Cabernets

It sure seems like a Costco Christmas, doesn't it? We thought about that as we considered our recommendations for Thanksgiving wine this year.

Thanksgiving is the single most special meal of the year for many of us and the wine choice is always a matter of intense consideration. Every wine writer dutifully offers advice on the "perfect" pairing, but there are far too many variables -- from what flavor Jell-O mold to whether the bird is turkey, goose or actually made of tofu -- to make any single choice.

Cabernet Sauvignon goes great with the Thanksgiving bird. Tastings columnists Dorothy Gaiter and John Brecher suggest some surprising places to buy bottles of wine, and Blenders that won't roast your wallet.

Overall, it's important that the wine be fairly light on its feet -- not too alcoholic, not heavy, not overly oaky -- so it doesn't seem like yet another side dish on a table already overloaded with them. Many people start the festivities with sparkling wine as an aperitif, so keep in mind that sparklers are often outstanding accompaniments to food, too, because of their good acidity and bubbly digestibility. If you serve a white wine, we once conducted a tasting with our own annual Thanksgiving meal -- roast turkey, bread stuffing, cranberry sauce, sweet potatoes with marshmallows -- and found that a dry Riesling or Pinot Gris from the U.S. worked well. In terms of reds, Pinot Noir is a fine choice, especially the ever-improving Pinots from Oregon.

Now, all that said, our longtime advice for Thanksgiving -- what we have enjoyed every year -- is an American Cabernet Sauvignon with some age on it. Here, briefly, are the reasons: 1) It's an American holiday and the wine should be American. 2) We prefer red wine with the meal because it stands up to such an imposing menu and it's appropriate to the season. 3) Good Cabernet Sauvignon has the structure, stature and bearing to belong at the Thanksgiving table. It's not for nothing that America's best, most-famous and most-expensive wines continue to be made from Cabernet. 4) An older Cabernet, with tastes that have melded and tannins that have softened, is great with both white and dark turkey meat and pairs well with the other dishes without overwhelming them.

So if you do have any older Cabernet Sauvignon around the house, now is the time to open one. The grim financial news of the past few months certainly should remind all of us that the time to drink our good wine and give thanks for what we have is now.

We realize that most Americans don't have any older Cabernet in the house, but we would still recommend Cabernet for Thanksgiving. It is the world's most majestic red grape, after all, and this is the time to showcase it. There are more and more outstanding merchants these days who would love to talk with you about a fine wine for Thanksgiving. Where do Americans actually buy wine, though? Costco.
[Wines at Club Stores] Juliette Borda
The Dow Jones Warehouse Cabernet for Thanksgiving Index

In a tasting of every American Cabernet Sauvignon we could find at Costco and Sam's Club stores in New Jersey, these were our favorites. If you were going to buy your Thanksgiving Cabernet from these stores, these are the ones we would recommend. The offerings at the warehouse stores generally do not include many outstanding, small-production Cabernets that are available at the burgeoning number of excellent neighborhood wine stores all over the U.S. The prices we have listed are the prices we paid at the Costco and Sam's stores. The Charles Krug and Raymond generally cost about $5 more, while the others cost about what we paid.

Charles Krug Winery 2005 (Yountville, Napa Valley). $20.99.
Very Good.
Best of tasting (tie).
Lovely dark color, with cedar on the nose. Ripe, dark fruit, excellent tannins and some aging potential. A complete wine, with layers of flavor -- Bordeaux-like structure and rich California fruit.

Simi Winery 2005 (Alexander Valley). $20.48.
Very Good.
Best of tasting (tie).
Looks rich and even smells like ripe, chewy fruit, with blackberries, blueberries and savory spices of the kind we'd put into stuffing. Earthy, with good tannins and a little bit of bittersweet chocolate. Big, rich, friendly wine.

J. Lohr Winery Estates "Seven Oaks" 2006 (Paso Robles). $11.52.
Good/Very Good.
Best value.
Pleasant and grapey, with some acidity and blackberry fruit. Nicely dry finish, with some herbs and pepper. Well-balanced. This will be drunk merrily. We didn't like the 2004.

Raymond Vineyard & Cellar "Reserve" 2005 (Napa Valley). $22.99.
Very Good.
Lovely fruit and nicely dry. Tastes classy, with some structure and even a hint of tobacco, like a fine Bordeaux. A wine of some stature, appropriate to a fine meal.

Sterling Vineyards 2005 (Napa Valley). $20.86.
Good/Very Good.
Crisp, clean and nicely acidic. Mouth-watering, with some minerals and a nice little bite at the end. Good with food because it's not too heavy. John thought it was thin; Dottie thought it was simply restrained.

NOTE: Wines are rated on a scale that ranges: Yech, OK, Good, Very Good, Delicious and Delicious!

Costco has become America's wine store. Its world-wide sales of wine in the fiscal year ended Aug. 31 totaled $1.1 billion, the company said. In the U.S., Costco warehouse-club stores sold more than 75 million bottles of wine, making it the nation's top retailer of wine.

After a slow start, Wal-Mart is trying to catch up. More than 2,000 of its stores now have beer and wine licenses and of the 594 Sam's Club stores, 453 sell wine. Wal-Mart and Sam's Club declined to release any figures on their wine sales, but of all the money that Americans spend on wine at stores in the U.S., 10% is spent at club stores, according to Nielsen Co., which tracks sales in food and drug stores.

It seems to us, in these difficult times, that many people will be looking to Costco and Sam's for their Thanksgiving wine. So we visited Costco and Sam's stores and picked up every American Cabernet Sauvignon they offered, regardless of price or vintage.

What we have said about Costco's wine prices in the past -- and what we found again this year, both at Costco and Sam's -- is that the prices are good. They are not giving away wine at ridiculously low prices and, in fact, just about all of the wines are available for less somewhere else. But the prices are consistently in the low range among stores, so that, overall, the prices are fair and reasonable, especially because buying wine and food at the same place saves gas.

We found 40 different U.S. Cabernets at Costco and Sam's. The selection at Sam's was lower-end, with most of the wines priced at $20 or less. The only bottle that cost more than $26 was Chateau St. Jean Cinq Cépages 2000, which was $54.56. Most of the wines were familiar names, though we also saw, for the first time, Newman's Own Cabernet Sauvignon 2006 ($12.88). Costco also offers low-end wines, but has made its reputation by selling wines in all price ranges. Among the wines we bought there were Pine Ridge ($65.99), Grgich Hills ($53.99), Silverado ($42.99) and Joseph Phelps ($43.99). We also found a Robert Mondavi Reserve 2005 for $98.99.

Because of the high turnover, you can never be sure what wine you will find at any Costco or Sam's, but, overall, they provide a pretty good overview of wider-distribution American Cabernet Sauvignon, with names like Beaulieu, Beringer, Kendall-Jackson, Kenwood and Louis Martini. Most of the wines we bought were from the fine 2005 vintage. Neither Costco nor Sam's offered a house-brand Cabernet when we were shopping, but Costco did have a house-brand Kirkland Meritage 2005 (a Bordeaux-style blend that, in this case, was 29% Cabernet), so we included that. Most of the wines at Costco and Sam's are produced in significant quantities by large companies, such as Constellation Brands, that own many wineries. For the kind of small-production, personal Cabernets that often offer special depth and vision, it really is a good idea to visit a fine local wine store.
DO THEY STACK UP?

We tasted the 40 wines in blind flights over several nights. Foremost on our minds: Is this a wine we would recommend to friends for the most festive, most carefully prepared, most filling dinner of the year?
Toasting a New Vintage

A few of Dorothy Gaiter and John Brecher's favorite wines to still celebrate the arrival of 2008 Beaujolais Nouveau. Read Wine Notes.

On Nov. 20, you'll have the chance to enjoy the earliest fruits of the French harvest. See the list of worldwide Beaujolais Nouveau parties.

The answer, in far too many cases, was no. For years now, we have warned that American Cabernet Sauvignon was getting stupid. Instead of layers of flavor dominated by rich fruit, too many have become leaden and lab-made, tasting more of vanilla, oak, herbal infusions and even sugar.

Unfortunately, this tasting showed that this sad trend has continued. A majority of these wines would be absolutely wrong with your Thanksgiving meal -- far too sweet, far too heavy. It is so important that wines have good acidity and a clean, dry finish so diners are prepared for the next bite of food. Too often, these left us feeling that we'd just sucked down some pancake syrup.

Your guests would not drink them lustily because they are hard to drink. They would eat less because the wine itself is so heavy. They would not enjoy dinner as much because they wouldn't be drinking wine as freely as they might, and conversation -- the precious time together getting caught up -- would certainly suffer. And you know how carefully you chose just the right herbs for the stuffing? Forget it. No one would be able to taste that kind of subtlety. (By the way, we liked the expensive Mondavi, but it was not among our favorites. We did not like the Kirkland Meritage or Newman's Own.)

That means it's important to choose very carefully (and at these stores you're likely on your own). There were some exceptions, as listed in the attached index, and these are the ones we'd recommend. These are wines that tasted like Cabernet, with good fruit, nice acidity and real balance. Any one of them would be a fine addition to your Thanksgiving meal. From the first whiff to the long finish, these would remind everyone at the table that America's bounty includes some fine wines.

Good American Cabernet tastes like America to us and gives us something special in our glass with which to toast a future that we're sure will be very exciting. Happy Thanksgiving.

Why Bankruptcy is the Best Option for GM

General Motors is a once-great company caught in a web of relationships designed for another era. It should not be fed while still caught, because that will leave it trapped until we get tired of feeding it. Then it will die. The only possibility of saving it is to take the risk of cutting it free. In other words, GM should be allowed to go bankrupt.

Consider the costs of tackling GM's problems with some kind of bailout plan. After 42 years of eroding U.S. market share (from 53% to 20%) and countless announcements of "change," GM still has eight U.S. brands (Cadillac, Saab, Buick, Pontiac, GMC, Saturn, Chevrolet and Hummer). As for its more successful competitors, Toyota (19% market share) has three, and Honda (11%) has two.

GM has about 7,000 dealers. Toyota has fewer than 1,500. Honda has about 1,000. These fewer and larger dealers are better able to advertise, stock and service the cars they sell. GM knows it needs fewer brands and dealers, but the dealers are protected from termination by state laws. This makes eliminating them and the brands they sell very expensive. It would cost GM billions of dollars and many years to reduce the number of dealers it has to a number near Toyota's.

Foreign-owned manufacturers who build cars with American workers pay wages similar to GM's. But their expenses for benefits are a fraction of GM's. GM is contractually required to support thousands of workers in the UAW's "Jobs Bank" program, which guarantees nearly full wages and benefits for workers who lose their jobs due to automation or plant closure. It supports more retirees than current workers. It owns or leases enormous amounts of property for facilities it's not using and probably will never use again, and is obliged to support revenue bonds for municipalities that issued them to build these facilities. It has other contractual obligations such as health coverage for union retirees. All of these commitments drain its cash every month. Moreover, GM supports myriad suppliers and supports a huge infrastructure of firms and localities that depend on it. Many of them have contractual claims; they all have moral claims. They all want GM to be more or less what it is.

And therein lies the problem: The cost of terminating dealers is only a fraction of what it would cost to rebuild GM to become a company sized and marketed appropriately for its market share. Contracts would have to be bought out. The company would have to shed many of its fixed obligations. Some obligations will be impossible to cut by voluntary agreement. GM will run out of cash and out of time.

GM's solution is to ask the federal government for the cash that will allow it to do all of this piece by piece. But much of the cash will be thrown at unproductive commitments. And the sense of urgency that would enable GM to make choices painful to its management, its workers, its retirees, its suppliers and its localities will simply not be there if federal money is available. Like AIG, it will be back for more, and at the same time it will be telling us that it's doing a great job under difficult circumstances.

Federal law provides a way out of the web: reorganization under Chapter 11 of the bankruptcy code. If GM were told that no assistance would be available without a bankruptcy filing, all options would be put on the table. The web could be cut wherever it needed to be. State protection for dealers would disappear. Labor contracts could be renegotiated. Pension plans could be terminated, with existing pensions turned over to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC). Health benefits could be renegotiated. Mortgaged assets could be abandoned, so plants could be closed without being supported as idle hindrances on GM's viability. GM could be rebuilt as a company that had a chance to make vehicles people want and support itself on revenue. It wouldn't be easy but, unlike trying to bail out GM as it is, it wouldn't be impossible.

The social and political costs would be very large, but if GM fails after getting $50 billion or $100 billion in bailout money, it'll be just as large and there will be less money to soften the blow and even more blame to go around. The PBGC will probably need money to guarantee GM's pensions for its white- and blue-collar workers (pension support is capped at around $40,000 per year, so that won't help executives much). Unemployment insurance will have to be extended and offered to many people, perhaps millions if you include dealers, suppliers and communities dependent on GM as it exists now. A GM bankruptcy will make addressing health-care coverage more urgent, which is probably a good thing. It would require job-retraining money and community assistance to affected localities.

But unless we are willing to support GM as it is indefinitely, the downsizing and asset-shedding will have to come anyway. Even if it builds cars as attractive and environmentally responsible as those Honda and Toyota will be building, they won't be able to carry the weight of GM's past.

GM CEO Rick Wagoner says "bankruptcy is not an option." Critics of a bankruptcy say that GM won't be able to get the loans it will need to guarantee warranties, pay its operating losses while it restructures, and preserve customers' ability to finance purchases. While consumers buy tickets from bankrupt airlines, electronics from bankrupt retailers, and apartments from bankrupt builders, they say consumers won't buy cars from a bankrupt auto maker. But bankruptcy no longer means "liquidation" or "out of business" to a generation of consumers used to buying from firms in reorganization.

GM would guarantee warranty support with a segregated fund if necessary. And debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing -- loans that provide the near-term cash for reorganizing companies -- is very safe, because the DIP lender has priority over all other claimants. In normal markets, it would certainly be available to a GM that has assets to sell, including a viable overseas business. Such financing is probably available even now.

In any event, it would be lined up before a filing, not after, so any problems wouldn't be a surprise. As a last resort, we could at least consider a public DIP loan to support a reorganizing GM with a good chance to survive -- as opposed to subsidizing a GM slowly deflating.

The fate of Daewoo -- the Korean auto maker that collapsed in 2000 after filing for bankruptcy, leaving about 500 dealers stranded in the U.S. -- is often cited as "proof" that a GM bankruptcy won't work. But Daewoo was headquartered in a part of the world where bankruptcy still carries a major stigma and usually means liquidation. Daewoo's experience is largely irrelevant to a major U.S. company undergoing a well-publicized positive transformation, almost certainly under new management.

GM as it is cannot survive without long-term government life support. If it gets that support, it can't change enough and won't change fast enough. Contrary to Mr. Wagoner's brave declaration, bankruptcy is an option. In fact, it's the only option that merits public support and actually has a chance at succeeding.

Stores Count Seconds to Cut Labor Costs

SHELBY TOWNSHIP, Mich. -- Daniel A. Gunther has good reason to keep his checkout line moving at the Meijer Inc. store north of Detroit. A clock starts ticking the instant he scans a customer's first item, and it doesn't shut off until his register spits out a receipt.

To assess his efficiency, the store's computer takes into account everything from the kinds of merchandise he's bagging to how his customers are paying. Each week, he gets scored. If he falls below 95% of the baseline score too many times, the 185-store megastore chain, based in Walker, Mich., is likely to bounce him to a lower-paying job, or fire him.

American retailers have come under tremendous financial pressure as beleaguered consumers curtail their spending. At least 14 major chains have sought bankruptcy protection over the past 12 months, and many others are struggling. With nearly all of them under the gun to cut costs and improve profit margins, "labor-waste elimination" systems like the one used by Meijer are sweeping the industry. Meijer may offer organic lawn care.

The brains behind Meijer's system is a consulting and software company known for decades as H.B. Maynard & Co., which last year became the Operations Workforce Optimization unit of Accenture Ltd. Borrowing from time-motion concepts first developed for U.S. steel mills and factory floors, it breaks down tasks such as working a cash register into quantifiable units and devises standard times to complete them, called "engineered labor standards." Then it writes software to help clients keep watch over their work forces.

The client list of OWO, as it is now known, has included more than five dozen retail chains, including Gap Inc., TJX Cos., Limited Brands Inc., Office Depot Inc., Nike Inc., and Toys "R" Us Inc. A host of other "work force management" companies also offer to help retailers improve worker productivity.

Interviews with cashiers at 16 Meijer stores suggest that its system has spurred many to hurry up -- and has dialed up stress levels along the way. Mr. Gunther, who is 22 years old, says he recently told a longtime customer that he couldn't chat with her anymore during checkout because he was being timed. "I was told to get people in and out," he says. Other cashiers say they avoid eye contact with shoppers and generally hurry along older or infirm customers who might take longer to unload carts and count money.

Reactions from customers at Michigan stores vary. "Sometimes you like to get in and get out right away," says Barb Bush, who shops at Meijer stores in DeWitt and Owosso and says she likes the current system. "A lot of [the cashiers] like to stop and chat, and I don't really have the time for it."

Linda Long, 58, who shops at the Okemos store weekly, says of the cashiers: "Everybody is under stress. They are not as friendly. I know elderly people have a hard time making change because you lose your ability to feel. They're so rushed at checkout that they don't want to come here."

Meijer spokesman Frank J. Guglielmi said in an email that "as the retail landscape became more crowded and competitive, Meijer has focused more intently on maximizing efficiencies." The engineered standards, he said, take into account all types of customers, including the elderly. The system, he said, has enabled Meijer to staff stores more efficiently, and has increased customer-service ratings. Meijer, a family-owned chain with more than 60,000 employees in five states, doesn't disclose its finances.

Mr. Guglielmi says Meijer "expects employees to be at 100% performance to the standards, but we do not begin any formal counseling process until the performance falls below 95%." If a cashier is "challenged in their position," he says, the company provides "training and counseling to help improve their performance. If this doesn't help them, there are various alternatives." He declined to elaborate.

Customers at several Michigan stores said managers appeared to be opening fewer checkout lines than before, relying on faster-moving cashiers and self-checkout systems to pick up the slack. "I do notice that the cashiers go a little faster, but it doesn't necessarily matter because there aren't that many cashiers," says Melissa Shoe, 20, a regular shopper at the Lansing store. Before Meijer installed its system a couple of years ago, OWO, then still known as H.B. Maynard, helped devise engineered labor standards for everything from greeting shoppers to scanning items too big to remove from a shopping cart. By calculating a standard time for each task, a retailer can more closely monitor worker performance and figure out how and where to reduce labor, the single biggest controllable expense in retail. OWO says its methods can often cut labor costs by 5% to 15%.

The approach is rooted in the time-motion theories of Frederick Taylor from the early 20th century, which were used to break down tasks into units to determine the maximum work a person could do. Harold B. Maynard, the company's founder, began his career in 1924 as a time-study engineer at Westinghouse, then formed his own company. For 70 years, that company worked primarily for manufacturers.

In 2000, after demand from manufacturing industries declined, the company shifted into retail. These days, about 80% of its $20 million in annual revenue comes from retail.

"As manufacturing gets shipped overseas, many people thought that would be the end of engineered standards," says John Lund, a professor of industrial engineering at an extension program for workers at the University of Wisconsin. "In fact, we are not seeing that at all. We are seeing a renaissance of engineered standards in the retail industry."

Hannaford Bros., a subsidiary of the Belgian Delhaize Group, says OWO helped it reduce labor costs at more than 150 supermarkets in New York and New England. Just adding presliced pickles to sandwiches, rather than having deli workers slice pickles themselves, saved Hannaford $60,000 in labor costs, according to Mike Farago, a former process-improvement specialist at Hannaford.

At Bob's Stores, a Northeastern clothing and footwear chain, the software revealed that shaving one extra second from the checkout process for each shopper would produce $15,000 in annual labor savings across its 34 stores, according to Kevin Campbell, assistant vice president for store operations. He says Bob's used the software to determine how many workers to schedule at any given time. The methods enabled it to lower its labor budget by 8%, he says.
Engineering Meets Service

Unlike factory workers, most retail clerks deal face-to-face with customers, which raises questions about how such labor standards can affect customer relations.

"If it is the type of job where you can lay out every element of the job, then you might get more output per hour" using such a system, says Barry Hirsch, a labor professor in the economics department at Georgia State University. "But if it is a job that requires things that can't be quantified -- special effort for a customer, or just being friendly -- then delineating things too carefully for how employees behave can decrease productivity, because you're just so focused on working to precise guidelines."

OWO says retailers can, and should, adjust time standards to take into account customer service and other variables such as store layout or sales volume, which can affect how long it takes employees to perform certain tasks. In a study late last year for a large clothing chain, for example, OWO determined that for every customer buying something in a high-traffic urban store, 2.63 items were "disturbed" and required straightening or reorganizing. That compared to 1.98 items in quieter suburban stores.

Meijer says it pioneered supercenters in the early 1960s. Each store stocks around 150,000 products, including groceries, apparel, sporting goods, home furnishings and pet supplies.

In recent years, it has faced mounting competition from discount supercenters owned by Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which often offered lower prices on general merchandise. Meijer adopted the new labor standards for cashiers to boost productivity. It added fingerprint readers to cash registers so cashiers can sign in for work directly at their registers, not at a time clock, "saving minutes of wasted time," says Roy Smith Jr., the former director of Meijer's Benton Harbor, Mich., store. The chain also installed a system to monitor how many cases per hour stock workers were loading onto shelves.

In the late 1990s, the typical high-traffic Meijer store employed about 700 workers and nearly 50 managers, says Mr. Smith, who worked at nine Meijer stores over 15 years before quitting in September. Between late 2003 and late 2007, he says, Meijer's "selling, general and administrative" expenses, which includes labor, fell about 4%. The company spokesman declined to comment on those numbers, but said that most Meijer stores now employ between 250 and 400 workers.

In spring 2007, Meijer began disciplining cashiers who couldn't keep up with its baseline standards, according to Mr. Smith and several longtime cashiers. Hitting the baseline was "like a C-minus" grade, says Mr. Smith. Those who fell below 95% of the baseline -- a score of 95 -- faced penalties or weeding out. Meijer posted weekly "cashier productivity" notices in employee-only areas.

Store managers used the scores to decide whether new cashiers still in the 90-day probationary period should be transferred, or fired. Longtime employees also were scrutinized. In a given week, up to one-fifth of the scores posted were below 95, current and former cashiers say.

Before the scoring system, "nobody knew who was good," says Mr. Smith. Afterwards, managers knew "this person isn't as strong as that person. It becomes really obvious, and you're able to put a number to that." Cashiers were counseled for as many as seven weeks on improving performance; those who didn't lost their jobs, he says.

Employees with scores below 95 are told: "Get your percentage up, and we'll have a manager watch you to see what you should do differently," says Nastassia Gauna, who worked as a cashier at the Adrian, Mich., Meijer store before quitting, she says, in August.

The computer scores, Ms. Gauna says, don't "take into consideration the many things that can go wrong at a register to kill your time" -- a customer who doesn't have enough cash and is "digging through a purse," a credit card that doesn't swipe through the charge, or an item with no price or item number on it. Some customers ask for cigarettes located in another part of the store, and the cashier has to get them. Others forget items and retreat to the aisles to find them.

Operations Workforce Optimization, a unit of Accenture, breaks down tasks into quantifiable units, devises standard times to complete them, then writes software to help clients keep watch over their workforces. Here are some ways it trimmed time from common tasks at an unnamed grocery retailer.

At clothing retailers, OWO defines "recovery" as collecting an item that has been left behind or disturbed by a shopper. Tasks vary, depending on the scenario -- re-hanging a garment that's on the ground versus one that's not on the ground -- and the store. Handling an item and looking for a tag should take about 1.8 seconds. Buttoning or zipping a garment should take about 2.4 seconds.

To help a large clothing chain figure out efficient staffing, OWO's analysis found that in high-traffic stores, for every 100 customers purchasing something, 50 pieces of clothing need to get rehung and replaced back out on the sales floor. It takes more than 11 seconds per shopper to recover an item.

In low-traffic (often suburban) stores, 15 items need to be returned to the floor, for every 100 customers who buy something, and it takes about six seconds per shopper to recover an item.

This kind of behavior, of course, tends to tick off other shoppers waiting in line, but some of them sympathize with the cashiers. "I am 84, and I get behind some old person and I can't stand it," says one shopper at the Owosso store. "They go into their purse and they are counting out a penny, and I am thinking that poor clerk, and people are lining up. But it's not the clerk's fault."

Kristine E. Barry, a cashier at the DeWitt store, says she began to see cashiers hurry along elderly customers by telling them to put their items on the belt more quickly because they were being timed. "When you have a situation where you are dealing with an elderly customer who's not as speedy, you're under pressure," says Ms. Barry, who has been a Meijer cashier for 22 years.

Jacqueline Sue Hanning, 25, took a job as a cashier in the Adrian, Mich., store for $7.15 an hour, in July 2007. She says she was "written up" three or four times last spring for scores below 95. She was told she would have to move to another department, at lower pay, if her score didn't improve, she says. "Make sure you're just scanning, grabbing, bagging," she recalls being told. She quit after nearly one year on the job.

Two shoppers interviewed in front of the Okemos store said they were told by cashiers that they were being timed. "There was one particular cashier that was in so much of a hurry," recalls Ms. Long, the regular customer at that store. "And he was saying, 'When you're afraid you're going to lose your job, you're going to make more mistakes.' "

The United Food and Commercial Workers Union, which covers about 27,000 Meijer employees in Michigan, including 3,000 cashiers, has filed a grievance against the company in connection with the cashier-performance system, saying it has found flaws in it. The union says the matter is headed for arbitration. The Meijer spokesman declined to comment.

Ms. Barry, the DeWitt cashier, who says her weekly score usually hits or exceeds the baseline, admits to using a few tricks to improve her times. She makes heavy use of the register's "suspend button," which stops the clock. The system detects when remote scanning guns are used, automatically allowing slightly more time to scan big items that stay in the cart. Ms. Barry sometimes uses the remote scanner for nonbulky merchandise.

"It is pretty much survival," she says. "You have to learn the tricks of the trade."

Google Settles Copyright Lawsuit With Book Publishers

Technology and copyright law have been at odds since the beginning of the digital era. Music publishers sued the fans who illegally downloaded songs. Movie studios and book publishers had their lawyers and lobbyists block digital access as best they could. But content owners are finally realizing they're better off helping their customers use digital media than trying to stop the march of technology.

Just in the past few weeks, YouTube announced that MGM will let the online video site offer selected movies and that CBS will let it link to shows such as the original "Star Trek" series. The big four music labels agreed to let the LaLa Web site offer sample songs. Even the Beatles, longtime digital holdouts, agreed their music can be part of a videogame.

The most fascinating truce in the copyright wars is this month's settlement of litigation between book publishers and authors on one side and Google on the other -- at $125 million, the biggest book deal ever. Google has digitized some seven million books. Of these, one million were already covered by an agreement with publishers to allow "preview" selections of books. Another one million books are old enough that they're no longer covered by copyright.

The settlement focused on the remaining five million books, which are still under copyright but no longer in print. This sounds like a perfect application of the Web -- letting people find digital versions of books not otherwise available. But it was unclear what "fair use" meant to determine how much of a book Google could display before having to pay publishers and authors. The settlement agrees that 20% of a book can be previewed without payment. So while fair use is still undefined for other situations, this is an important precedent that benefits both consumers and content owners. It also, of course, benefits the Google colossus by letting it display for free significant excerpts of books it's already digitized.

Copyright is critical to provide property rights in books, music and other forms of intellectual property, contrary to those who claim that somehow everything must be free just because it's on the Web. But content owners also belatedly realize that simply suing consumers who find new, convenient ways to access content online is not as good as finding new business models to profit from customer interest that technology makes possible.

Under pressure from all sides, Congress and the U.S. Copyright Office had dithered about so-called orphan works, books whose owners or authors are hard to find. Congress toyed with a test of requiring payment after a "reasonably diligent search" for the owners.

This vague standard "would have been a classic Washington solution to the problem," Lawrence Lessig said in an interview, "meaning it would have been a nightmare." Mr. Lessig, a Stanford law professor and author of several books on copyright, says the registry is a huge breakthrough because it ends uncertainty. "Establishing who owns what is real progress," he says. "An efficient solution can be found once there is settling of property rights."

Google still claims it has the right to index content on the Web for its search engine. Exactly what snippet or excerpt goes too far for fair use in other cases remains unclear. Under the registry it will set up, the owners of the intellectual property can set prices for book downloads, have a Google algorithm set prices, or refuse access altogether.

The market solution means Google will now offer millions of books for sale, sharing the proceeds with publishers and authors. Books long out of print will be searchable and available for a fee.

This is a sharp break from Google's approach of gaining access to content such as newspaper and magazine articles simply by providing advertising-supported links, though the company warns not to read too much into this precedent of agreeing to make direct payments for content or encouraging its users to pay for content online.

This shift by Google led Peter Osnos, founder of PublicAffairs books, to wonder if the book settlement could have lessons for other owners of content. "Google has now conceded, with a very large payment, that information is not free," Mr. Osnos wrote for the Century Foundation. "This leads to an obvious, critical question: Why aren't newspapers and news magazines demanding payment for use of their stories on Google and other search engines? Why are they not getting a significant slice of the advertising revenues generated by use of their stories via Google?"

Alas for the troubled news media industry, so much of its news is commoditized that people won't pay for it online. But as digital media mature, we'll see more redefinitions of legal concepts such as fair use. There will also be revisions of business practices regarding who gets paid what by whom. The Google settlement is a reminder that owners of intellectual property can choose to lock it away, give it away, or, most sensibly, share it in exchange for reasonable compensation.

College Presidents' Pay Climbs

The latest survey on college presidents' pay showed most of their salaries continue to climb, as families struggle to cover tuition bills and congressional leaders scrutinize higher-education finances.

Some of the largest increases lately have been at public universities, according to the annual pay survey by the Chronicle of Higher Education, a trade magazine.

For the 2007-2008 academic year, the most recent covered by the survey, median compensation for public-university presidents was $427,400, up 7.6% from $397,349 during the previous academic year. That was about 2.6 percentage points above the inflation rate for the period.

Fifty-nine public-university presidents were paid $500,000 or more, up from 43 the previous academic year.

During 2006-07, the latest academic year for which private-school data were available, median compensation at liberal-arts colleges hit $293,967, up 6.5% from the previous academic year. That exceeded the consumer-inflation rate for the period by 3.8 percentage points.

Compensation at large private research universities -- a category that includes Ivy League and other selective schools -- was flat in 2006-07 compared with the previous year at $527,172, representing an inflation-adjusted decline. Overall, the number of private-school presidents earning $500,000 or more rose 10% to 89.

College officials said the pay increases are necessary to attract and keep leaders capable of overseeing their complex and often large institutions. With all these presidents getting raises students are going to need student loans, private student loans and federal student loans to pay for college.

Terry Hartle, senior vice president of the American Council on Education, a trade group, said the pay data included in the survey were gathered months before the current economic crisis began. He added that, given all the scrutiny the pay issue has received, if university trustees decide to increase a president's compensation, "they have probably acted in very good faith and in a way that is totally justified."

But Patrick Callan, president of the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, a think tank based in San Jose, Calif., said that over the longer term, college presidents have been "disproportionately rewarded" compared with faculty and other employees. "I think these people should be fairly compensated," he said, "but I think we have gone a little bit overboard."

Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa, ranking Republican on the Senate Finance committee, said pay raises for college presidents, like tuition increases, regularly outpace inflation.

The Chronicle survey found that David J. Sargent, president of Suffolk University, an 8,900-student private institution in Boston, was the highest-paid president, earning $2,800,461. In addition to a base salary of $436,000, Mr. Sargent's compensation package included a $1.2 million "deferred sabbatical bonus" and $556,000 in certain deferred compensation.

Suffolk spokesman Greg Gatlin said Mr. Sargent has never taken a sabbatical in 52 years at the university, 19 as president, and that the pay package was meant to make up for "woefully inadequate" past compensation. Nicholas Macaronis, chairman of Suffolk's board of trustees, said the compensation was appropriate because Mr. Sargent's leadership is "critical" to Suffolk and its future.

Among current presidents of public universities, E. Gordon Gee of Ohio State University was the highest paid. He received $1,346,225, which included $775,000 in salary, $225,000 in deferred compensation and a $310,000 bonus.

According to a transcript, at a recent meeting of the Ohio State board of trustees where Mr. Gee's bonus was approved, Chairman Gil Gloyd told fellow trustees that Mr. Gee is the "best and most experienced university president in the nation" and that his accomplishments justified the board's faith in him.

For WPP's Sorrell, There's Always the Blarney Stone and Guinness

Did WPP Chief Executive Sir Martin Sorrell abandon his country too quickly?

To avoid an increased tax on overseas profits, marketing giant WPP last week completed the costly move of its legal headquarters to Dublin from London. Now, the U.K. government says it is reviewing the tax, a move that could lead to it being watered down.

At issue are the obscure Controlled Foreign Companies tax rules, which aim to stop companies from channeling profits to countries with lower tax rates. It effectively forces U.K. companies to pay similar U.K. tax rates on profits generated overseas, although there are many exemptions. Companies say legitimate earnings are being caught unfairly by changes to the rules.

Now, the U.K. Treasury plans to "improve" the rules to make Britain more attractive for business, Alistair Darling, the head of the Treasury, told Parliament on Monday. Accountants say that sounds like code for U-turn.

The government's willingness to examine the policy "may be encouraging," Sir Martin said in an email, but the "lack of detail causes more uncertainty, not less."

In addition to WPP, several U.K. companies recently moved to Ireland, which has lower corporate taxes, including publisher United Business Media and pharmaceutical maker Shire. Regus, which rents out office space, went to Luxembourg.

None are as a prominent as WPP, which dominates its industry globally through big advertising agencies like JWT, Ogilvy & Mather and Grey Worldwide. WPP's rise has turned Sir Martin into a British business celebrity, making the company's move all the more surprising. Indeed, so much is Sir Martin part of the fabric of London's business world that this week he was granted the Freedom of the City of London, a ceremonial honor dating from the Middle Ages.

Even though WPP's operational headquarters remains in London's Mayfair district, legally swapping countries wasn't simple. WPP had to hold two sequential shareholder meetings, cancel its London-traded shares, obtain court approval, issue new shares and change its name. (It is now called WPP instead of WPP Group.) WPP's annual meetings, once held in London hotels, now will be in Dublin. Possibly all for naught.

"In two years it may turn out that all those companies that moved, didn't have to," says Chris Morgan, head of the international corporate tax group at KPMG in the U.K.