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Monday, October 13, 2008

The Slowdown Hits Holiday Travel

To entice reluctant spenders, hoteliers offer new discounts for the winter

There's still hope for travelers who haven't made Thanksgiving or Christmas reservations.

Waiting too long to book a hotel room or a cruise for the holidays is a nightmare, as procrastinators and bargain-seekers know. Popular hotels sell out months in advance, many impose strict minimum-stay requirements and rates are at their highest. But this year, many resorts still have rooms available during the usually packed weeks of Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's. A number of them are easing up on requirements or tossing in extras to entice travelers to book now. Some are even discounting rates, and many cruise lines are offering cruise deals. and holiday cruises at reasonable rates.

More people this year are waiting to book. Resorts from Rocky Mountain ski slopes to Bora Bora report the 2008 holiday season is off to a slow start and hope discounts and freebies will prod reluctant travelers to act. "We should have been chockablock full and totally buttoned up for the holidays" by now, says Donna Michaels, senior director of product development at World Travel Holdings, with companies including Trips of Distinction and Vacation Outlet that sell packages to places like Hawaii and Mexico. Instead, she says, she has been inundated with discount offers and relaxed restrictions from hotels and tour operators looking to fill empty spaces.

Online travel agency Cheaptickets.com says average daily hotel rates have dropped in some of its most popular holiday destinations for stays in the Nov. 24-to-Dec. 31 period. Compared with last year, hotel rates have come down an average of 19% in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., and 12% in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

In California, the Avalon at Beverly Hills hotel is discounting rooms by 30% and offering a daily $30 hotel credit from Nov. 28 to Dec. 28. Wyoming's Four Seasons at Jackson Hole is throwing in a fourth night free for stays between Dec. 18 and Dec. 26 (they offered that deal last year only after New Year's Day). In Jamaica, the Ritz-Carlton Rose Hall has a $250 resort credit for Christmas guests who book by the end of October; travelers can spend it on golf rounds, spa treatments or "Ritz Kids" activities, such as cookie-decorating with the resort's pastry chefs or making s'mores with Santa's elves on the beach.

Many hoteliers and travel agents still think the most popular resorts will fill up for Christmas and Hanukkah, which starts Dec. 21 this year; they figure travelers are just waiting longer to lock in their plans. The Frenchman's Reef & Morning Star Marriott Beach Resort, on St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, still expects to sell out for Christmas week, even though bookings for that week and for New Year's are running 28% below last year at this time, says Viktoria Kuglics, director of sales and marketing. Just to be sure, the beachfront property is offering fifth and sixth nights free, plus free breakfast daily, to guests staying between Dec. 20 and Jan. 5.

Although few hotels are reporting cancellations, that could change as late-October deadlines for refunds approach. (Most high-demand hotels will refund holiday bookings only with 30 to 60 days' notice.) And Caribbean and Florida resorts have an extra layer of worry: Although hurricanes rarely strike in the region after November, the activity earlier this year made many travelers skittish and may prompt some to spend the holidays elsewhere.

Jeff Krudop, a travel agent with Travel Leaders in Fort Wayne, Ind., says that within the past two weeks he was able to find clients hotel rooms in the Dominican resort area Punta Cana and in Jamaica -- places that ordinarily are either booked solid or much pricier by now. "I'm surprised at the sheer number of people that are still planning now for Christmas," he says. "Normally people have it figured out six months in advance."

There is, of course, a catch. Airfares, which always peak during the holidays, will be even higher this year than in previous seasons. Nationally, airline ticket prices for Thanksgiving are up 27% from 2007, according to travel search engine Farecast.com. And since carriers cut back on flight capacity to many popular destinations this fall, seats in the U.S. are expected to book up faster. The Official Airline Guide says the number of domestic airline seats will decline by almost 10% in November and December compared with last year. Travelers willing to fly on off-peak days -- traveling home on the Monday or Tuesday after Thanksgiving, instead of Sunday -- are likely to have better luck finding flights at reasonable prices.

With airfares rising, the Horseshoe Bay Resort in Texas' Hill Country is getting a larger share of visitors driving in from Dallas and Austin this year. Overall, Thanksgiving bookings are down 9% from last year at this time, says Martha Heagany, chief marketing officer. The resort, which has three golf courses, is offering a holiday package with room rates at about 20% less than last year (it includes a $200 resort credit and daily breakfast).

Even some of the most in-demand holiday destinations are feeling the slowdown. Holiday bookings at Vail Resorts are currently behind those of last year, says Chief Executive Rob Katz. A few weeks ago, the company started offering customers one night free during a five-night stay over a holiday such as Christmas or Presidents Day. The promotion is good at all Vail Resorts and RockResorts properties, including those in places like Santa Fe and St. Lucia. "In the past, you've seen more deals at more of the off-peak times," says Mr. Katz. But this year, the deal-making has extended to peak weeks as the booking window shrinks.

The calendar isn't making things easier. With Christmas and New Year's Day falling on successive Thursdays this year, many travelers have decided they will take one long weekend or the other, rather than a full seven to 10 days. And among those opting for a full week, many want to travel during the second week, spending Christmas or Hanukkah at home.

Several of Club Med's all-inclusive properties, where most stays are Saturday to Saturday, are full or almost full for the week of New Year's. But there are plenty of availabilities in the week before. "Last year at this time people probably wouldn't have found anything," says Kate Moeller, director of public relations. This year, "it's much more of a wait-and-see mode." In places like Bora Bora and Ixtapa, Mexico, Club Med is offering two nights free during seven-night stays during holiday weeks between Nov. 22 and Feb. 14.

Other resorts are easing up on minimum-night requirements. The Radisson Resort in Aruba has reduced its usual holiday requirement of seven nights to five. In central London, the May Fair hotel is offering its holiday "bed and breakfast" package on every day of the week; last year, it was available only on weekends. Christmas-week rooms start at $350 a night, the same rate as last year.

The resort is offering Christmas guests who book early a credit that can be used for golf rounds, spa treatments or kids' activities.

Theme parks are doling out bargains, too. Silver Dollar City in Branson, Mo., is running about 80,000 visitors behind last year at this time, says Lisa Rau, director of public relations. The 5% decline came mostly among people traveling 300 miles or more. Christmas -- with live performances of "A Dickens Christmas Carol," a holiday light parade and a living nativity scene -- usually brings an influx of out-of-towners, but marketers say this year they've had to ramp up discounts and deals, like 2008 season passes available at last year's lowest price. Universal Orlando Resort, in Florida, says kids can stay free with a paid adult at five nearby hotels and get a free "unlimited" admission ticket.

Bill Thompson, director of sales and marketing for the Westin St. John Resort & Villas, in the Virgin Islands, says this summer he noticed resort guests were cutting back on the extras while vacationing. Parents came to the pool with coolers full of juice boxes and snacks for the kids. "Affluent people generally don't give [vacations] up, but they're not sitting at the bar having four or five drinks," he says. "They're having one drink and going back to their room and opening up their own bottle of wine."

The hotel is about 80% booked for the holidays as of this week, Mr. Thompson says; usually it would be sold out. The result is a "Santa Savings" deal, with room rates starting at $435 a night from Dec. 19 to 25, about 30% below last year.

By: Candace Jackson
Wall Street Journal; October 5, 2008