This fall, broadcast-TV shows such as NBC's "The Office" and Fox's "Fringe" are seeing their audiences jump by more than a third when counting people who record the shows and watch them later on digital-video recorders.But the rise in delayed viewing isn't enough to offset a broader trend: Fewer people are watching the big broadcast networks.
During the first two weeks of the TV season, an average of nine million people watched prime-time programming on the top five English-language broadcast networks, according to Nielsen Media Research, including an average of 1.5 million who watched recorded shows within seven days on DVRs. The total was down 6.6% from a year earlier.
"It's not pretty," says Jason Kanefsky, a media buyer at Havas's MPG. "No matter what the broadcast networks do, they need to find a hit."
The delayed-viewing numbers, which Nielsen publishes two weeks after data on viewers who watch the night of a broadcast, are important because they give a fuller snapshot of the prime-time TV audience.
About 24.4% of American households with TV sets now have DVRs, up from about 18.6% at the beginning of last season, Nielsen says. Counting only same-day viewing, broadcast networks are averaging 11.3% fewer viewers over the first four weeks of the season, compared with the previous season.
"The hard truth is that we are in a hugely fractionalized environment, which continues to become more fractionalized," says Alan Wurtzel, president of research at General Electric Co.'s NBC Universal. The result has been a slow, long-term exodus of viewers from broadcast networks to the growing number of cable options.
Mr. Wurtzel and other network executives point out that broadcast TV still reaches a broader audience than cable, and they say it is too early to know how the season will pan out. They note that the presidential debates, which aren't counted in the networks' prime-time averages, have made year-to-year comparisons less favorable by preempting or delaying popular shows. Moreover, the closely watched election campaign may be luring more viewers to news and away from prime-time broadcast fare.
"All of the political interest is delivering higher-than-average ratings for the cable-news networks," said David Poltrack, chief research officer at CBS Corp.
Through Sunday, four of the five biggest English-language broadcast networks have seen double-digit percentage declines from last season in same-day prime-time viewing among 18- to 49-year-olds. Walt Disney Co.'s ABC was down 15.4%, NBC was down 14.5% and Fox, which like The Wall Street Journal, is owned by News Corp., was down 13.3%. Those declines should be mitigated by DVR viewing, but aren't likely to be offset entirely.
One bright spot: several CBS shows, including "CSI" and "Criminal Minds," have increased their viewership this season, and the network's detective drama "The Mentalist" is the most-watched new series. But CBS's same-day primetime average among 18- to 49-year-olds is still down 4.6% from last season.
For broadcasters, the problem of declining viewership is compounded by the troubled economy. In recent years, lower ratings have often raised prices for ads sold close to the airdate -- known as "scatter" -- because networks had to give away ad time to make up for shortfalls, decreasing their inventory. But now soft demand is pushing scatter rates down, despite the ratings shortfalls.
"Scatter is not aggressive," Havas's Mr. Kanefsky says, adding that in a more robust economy, ad rates "would be through the roof."
Ratings may improve as networks move out of the political season. And in coming months, year-to-year comparisons will become more favorable as viewership is measured against early 2008, when networks aired more reruns than usual due to a writers' strike.
But some people see bigger issues ahead, including the growing popularity of broadcast TV shows on Internet services like Apple's iTunes. "If you train the audience to believe there's no urgency in watching anything," says Preston Beckman, Fox's head of scheduling and research, "then sometimes you never watch it at all."
February's transition from analog over-the-air television signals to digital ones could pose another threat to network ratings. About 15% of prime-time viewing on the broadcast networks occurs on TVs that Nielsen says are "unready" for the transition. Households that cope by switching to cable or satellite may start watching a greater variety of channels.
"Having the digital channels actually changes people's viewing habits," says Janice Finkel-Greene, a research executive at Interpublic Group's Initiative.
