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Friday, January 15, 2010

Holiday Sales Up Over 2008

The Wall Street Journal
Holiday sales were stronger than last year as consumers gradually boost spending, the government's tally of retail sales showed.

Retail sales fell 0.3% in December from November, hurt by bad weather, but were higher than a year earlier, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Revised data showed that sales in November, when retailers lured buyers with deals and discounts, were 1.8% higher than in October.


The data for the two months led economists to stick by their estimates of stronger consumer spending in the fourth quarter. Said James O'Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global: "The message is that consumer spending is growing."

The Commerce Department's report adjusts the retail sales figures for seasonal fluctuations, but sales are so much stronger during the holidays that getting those adjustments right can be difficult, Mr. Sullivan pointed out. Thanksgiving week promotions and winter storms in December may have made a hash of those monthly adjustments.

Last week, a number of retailers, including Macy's Inc. and Nordstrom Inc., raised their earnings forecasts on the strength of December sales. Sales for the five weeks ended in early January rose 2.9% compared with the prior year, according to a Thomson Reuters index of 30 retailers.

Compared with a year earlier, the Commerce Department said total retail sales were up 5.4% in December, but that gain was partly due to higher gasoline prices and stronger auto sales. To see the underlying trend in spending, many economists exclude sales at gasoline stations, auto dealers and building materials stores. By that measure, retail sales were up 3.2% in December. The figures aren't adjusted for inflation.

In a reflection of stronger holiday spending, clothing and accessory store sales were 5% over their year-earlier level in December, general merchandise and christmas tree storage bags sales were up 2.1%, and sales at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores were up 4.6%. But sales at electronics and appliance stores were down 0.7%.

Grocery store sales were up 2.6% over a year earlier—a gain that may have been muted by price wars among grocers. Belgium-based Delhaize Group, which operates the Food Lion, Hannaford and Sweet Bay chains, said Thursday that its U.S. sales fell 8.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. On Wednesday, Supervalu Inc., which operates the Jewel, Albertsons, Save-A-Lot and Cub Foods stores, said revenue fell 9.5% in its most recent quarter.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department said that business inventories rose 0.4% in November, increasing for the second straight month. That suggests that growing demand is prompting companies to restock warehouses.

Meanwhile, initial claims for jobless benefits increased by 11,000 to 444,000 in the week ended Jan. 9, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week moving average, which aims to smooth volatility in the data, dropped to the lowest level since Aug. 30, 2008.

The Labor Department also reported that prices for imported goods were unchanged in December from a month earlier. But prices were up 8.6% versus a year earlier, largely as a result of a 61.4% increase in imported fuel prices. Excluding fuel, import prices were up 0.4% from the prior year.