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Monday, January 25, 2010

Economic Indicators: Shipping Industry is Picking Up

New Orleans Business News

If shipping volume is any indication of the health of the retail industry, then Elroy Pinkins says 2009 has given retailers reason to celebrate.

"Last year was the worst year out of the 17 years I've been doing this, but this year volume is bouncing back," Pinkins said. "I'd say it's up 45 or 50 percent over last year."


A FedEx subcontractor whose trucks operate out of a central terminal in St. Rose, Pinkins believes that next year will be better still.

"Fedex hasn't provided us with specific percentages, but they've done projections and let us all know to expect things to continue to improve," Pinkins said.

The recent holiday shipping period helped end 2009 on a high note, according to Pinkins and the small neighborhood-based mailing and packaging businesses that help many individuals and businesses with their shipping.

"Business has been way down this year, but it's picked up a lot since the end of November," said Trevail Thomas, whose family owns Royal Mail in the French Quarter. "From what I've seen, the volume (during the holiday season) was about the same as it was in the past, except people got packages out earlier and didn't wait until the last minute when they have to spend more to send things by air."

However, Thomas reports that customers who rent post office boxes don't seem to be receiving as many packages as in the past.

"I guess in other parts of the country, they aren't sending out as much as they used to and so my mail box holders aren't receiving as much as they used to," Thomas said.

At Pack Rat on Magazine Street in the Irish Channel, owner Marielou Ray says she was relieved that the volume of holiday business matched that of the 2008 season.

"Overall, my business has been down about 10 percent this whole year compared to 2008, so I was expecting the same for the holiday shipping," she said. "But I've been tracking volume since the end of November and it's flat with what we had last year. That's good, because it could have been down 10 percent like the rest of the year."

Ray says that her customers economized in their shipping during the recent holiday period.

"I noticed that a lot of packages are smaller in size than we usually see, so they are cheaper to ship," Ray said. "Some people figure that if something isn't breakable, they can probably send it in a padded envelope instead of a box and save money that way. And people sent packages out early so they could go ground. They didn't want to bite the bullet and pay a premium for air."

Even the record-setting rainstorms that swept through New Orleans in mid-December failed to deter consumers from shipping early to take advantage of ground rates.

"Weather was not a factor for them. Through rain, sleet or snow, they felt like they had to get that package out in time for it to be sent ground," Thomas said. "They'd rather go through horrendous rain conditions than pay an extra $10 for air."

For Pinkins, this year's healthy holiday shipping season meant adding three trucks to the five he normally runs to routes in Metairie and Baton Rouge.

"Come October, I start advertising for people who can qualify to drive the extra trucks and then I train them," he said.

On a recent day, during the heaviest shipping period of the year, one of Pinkins' eight drivers was out so Pinkins himself took the wheel.

"I like to do it every now and then. It shows me what my drivers have to deal with," he said. "I like keeping in shape and seeing people."

With online retailers capturing a larger part of the holiday shipping business, Pinkins says that FedEx keeps an eye on promotions like "Cyber Monday" or "Free Shipping" days so that the company can prepare for the added volume.

"The national sales office works with retailers in advance of their promotions," he said. "That way, we aren't caught off guard by unexpected volume and the retailer knows they have a dependable shipper lined up."

Pinkins' drivers make an average of 1,200 stops a day during holiday season, or about 150 stops per day per driver.

"It can be stressful for them, with traffic and weather conditions," he said. "On average, drivers usually stay with it about two-and-a-half years before they move on to something new or become a subcontractor themselves."

Snowy conditions in the Northeast last weekend concerned Pinkins, who said that a major weather event like a snow storm can easily disrupt all of his careful planning and use of shipping software.

"It could be weather or an accident or someone getting sick -- you just have to be prepared for whatever comes your way and know from the start that something will come up you will just have to adapt to," Pinkins said.