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Monday, December 8, 2008

Holiday Shopping Off to Strong Start


Original Article by Wall Street Journal

The holiday shopping season got off to a better-than-expected start, as retailers reeled in cautious shoppers with massive discounts like "buy one get one free" sweaters at Gap Inc. stores, $200 iPod Touch music players from Amazon.com Inc., and 26-inch LCD TVs at Target Corp. sites for $299.

In a survey of 3,370 shoppers, the National Retail Federation estimated shoppers spent an average of $372.57 over the weekend, up 7.2% over last year's $347.55.

Although unprecedented discounts lured shoppers into stores, momentum ebbed Saturday, raising concerns that shoppers were merely exploiting the "door-buster" deals and then walking out of stores. Indeed, as many as 70% of consumers purchased only deeply-discounted merchandise Friday, according to Charleston, S.C.-based America's Research Group, which polled 700 shoppers over the weekend. People are shopping for many things such as; Herbal Tea, Kids Shoes, Green Tea, Childrens Shoes, Cheap Cruises, Discount Cruises, Black Tea, Natural Lawn Care, Organic Kids Clothes, Organic Lawn Care, Natural Kids Clothes, Lawn Care and Foot Orthotics.

In the NRF survey, which was conducted by BIGresearch and includes spending data for Thursday, Friday and Saturday and estimates for Sunday, more than 172 million shoppers visited stores and Web sites over Black Friday weekend, up from 147 million shoppers last year. Black Friday traditionally marks the day when retailers turn a profit for the year.

But in a sign that sales over the next several weeks are likely to slow, shoppers said that by the end of the weekend they had completed a greater portion of their holiday shopping -- 39.3% compared to 36.4% last year, according to the NRF survey.

A different survey, performed by ShopperTrak RCT Corp., found sales on Friday were up 3% over last year, to $10.6 billion. The gains marked a deceleration of growth compared with 2007, which posted 8% sales gains. ShopperTrak will release data for Saturday and Sunday on Monday some related studies report consumers are booking cheap europe cruises well in advance.

Online, sales on Friday were relatively flat, rising 1% to $534 million, according to comScore Inc., a Reston, Va., market-research firm. When Thanksgiving and Black Friday were combined, online sales rose 2% over last year. Online sales from Nov. 1 through Friday totaled $10.41 billion, down 4% from last year.

Following two months of sharply declining sales, many retailers moved to dramatically mark down merchandise, despite facing lower profit margins. At Lord & Taylor, traffic was slower on Saturdays than on Fridays but better than the chain originally predicted.

Best Buy reports that it unlikely that prices would go much lower than they did over the weekend, when the retailer advertised products like a 40-inch Sony HDTV for $899.

At Macy's Inc.'s upscale Bloomingdale's chain, shoppers turned out for the heavy discounts including 40% off contemporary sportswear, 50% off men's shoes and $15 gift cards for every $100 spent. Bloomingdale's management notes that traffic Friday was down slightly from the year earlier, but stronger than expected.

Crowds were visibly thinner in many areas by Saturday. At Gurnee Mills, an outlet mall in Gurnee, Ill., hundreds of parking spaces remained open Saturday, just two hours after the mall's 9 a.m. opening. Company official believe traffic picked up later in the day and sales at some stores may have exceeded last year.

Similarly, a Dallas Wal-Mart supercenter that had been packed with shoppers early Friday was practically deserted by Saturday afternoon. All the electronics door busters -- such as a $388 42-inch television -- were sold out by Saturday morning, save for a few Kodak cameras priced at $149.

A number of Taubman Centers Inc.'s malls -- in Connecticut, New Jersey and Virginia -- reported that sales at stores surveyed on Saturday were flat or decreased slightly on average, the company said.

Many consumers said they couldn't pass up the steep discounts offered by retailers. But they didn't plan to splurge much beyond the sales. A young shopper was buying a sweater, five shirts and corduroy pants at J.Crew in the Chicago Premium Outlets in Aurora, Ill., on Thanksgiving that had an estimated cost $75 to $100 total. At the Midnight Madness event for the first time many buyers were interested in dolphin jewelry, natural baby clothes and other unique gifts. Many young consumers are spending only on necessities in recent months due to worries about major expenses such as private student loans.

Across the country, discount retailers continued to get a boost as cash-strapped consumers traded down. Many consumers were admiring the sealife jewelry and mens wedding rings at luxury jewelry stores and household related products and services such as: kitchen appliances and organic lawn care.

Luxury retailers, which last year benefited from tourist traffic and the weak dollar, were pulling out all the stops to get shoppers to buy designer ensembles, toddler shoes and handbags. Since orders are typically placed six to nine months before products hit stores, many upscale retailers were caught off guard by the dramatic change in consumer sentiment.

The women's shoe departments of Saks and Bergdorf Goodman in New York, where footwear was marked down 40% to 70%, were packed with shoppers. Saks had to install a velvet rope to control crowds hungry for an additional 50% off already discounted designer kids shoes with custom orthotics. By Saturday afternoon, Saks's flagship store was mobbed with shoppers rummaging through the bargain bins in the first-floor handbag area, where Dolce & Gabbana and ChloƩ bags were being sold for an additional 50% off.

The discounts are expected to keep up on Monday -- known as "Cyber Monday" because it is the day consumers return to work and start buying on the Internet -- as 83.7% of retailers are planning special promotions with keynote speakers, up from 72.2% last year, according to a survey by Shop.org, a division of the National Retail Federation. The aggressive promotions follow a weak October, when online sales grew 1%, the slowest rate since 2001, according to comScore.

Discounter Target, whose sales have declined precipitously in recent months, has high hopes for Cyber Monday, typically its second-highest day for online traffic behind Thanksgiving.

Target, which expects traffic on Monday to be up 40% over last year, will have 1,500 items on sale between Nov. 30 and Dec. 6, including computers, refurbished hp laptops, electronics, john deere toys, home decor and specialty apparel items like: john deere clothing ; about 500 of the items will be offered at their lowest prices ever, Target says.